{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4c2aba70-23ba-4cd4-8d0f-5bf1e219e633", "symbol": "2286", "name": "Fourth Milling Co.", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 1.252, "architecture_energy": 20.869, "architecture_maturity": 53.539, "architecture_confidence": 79.972, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.18, "rotation_up": 14.44, "upward_expansion": 42.41, "deceleration": 87.24, "rotation_down": 45.0, "downward_expansion": 36.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.992667, 4.076909, 4.103429, 4.03471 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.98, "trend_reference": 3.90173, "distance_from_trend": 0.02006, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.791059, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.049839, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.256631, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.136572, "excess_performance": 0.168401, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.02006, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053274, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.049839, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018726, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.062566, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02183, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.136572, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.490802, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5604691, "relative_activity": 0.998721, "balance": 1.490802, "dry_up": 0.854842, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038848, "annualized_volatility": 0.165431, "from_high_reference": -0.099548, "from_low_reference": 0.192577 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.90173, "fair_value_reference": 3.791059, "structural_low": 3.337312, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032581, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002519, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-01", "close": 4.591643, "volume": 303563367, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-08", "close": 4.349977, "volume": 87528429, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": 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4.111729, 3.979142 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4.08, "volume": 2826301, "typical_volume": 6441268.45, "trend": 3.825614, "fair_value": 3.781556, "relative_strength": 9.790702, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.446829, "energy": 38.681452, "activity_lines": [ 4.194, 4.206909, 4.120985, 3.996589 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.12, "volume": 2496155, "typical_volume": 6350755.3, "trend": 3.847189, "fair_value": 3.785317, "relative_strength": 11.52101, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.257049, "energy": 28.455908, "activity_lines": [ 4.156667, 4.195455, 4.131159, 4.015582 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.97, "volume": 2687672, "typical_volume": 6004491.45, "trend": 3.864732, "fair_value": 3.787346, "relative_strength": 6.604417, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.465395, "energy": 21.696031, "activity_lines": [ 4.083333, 4.154364, 4.124195, 4.023505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.94, "volume": 8400514, "typical_volume": 5498009.3, "trend": 3.881597, "fair_value": 3.789006, "relative_strength": 7.76541, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.013815, "energy": 20.383363, "activity_lines": [ 4.020667, 4.110182, 4.11219, 4.028361 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.98, "volume": 5604691, "typical_volume": 5611865.9, "trend": 3.90173, "fair_value": 3.791059, "relative_strength": 6.256631, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.251825, "energy": 20.869336, "activity_lines": [ 3.992667, 4.076909, 4.103429, 4.03471 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }