{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4c33b353-a2c7-4a32-b3c6-96b99b4a7bf4", "symbol": "000631", "name": "Shunfa Hengneng Corporation", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.929, "architecture_energy": 46.871, "architecture_maturity": 33.451, "architecture_confidence": 93.819, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.49, "rotation_up": 21.58, "upward_expansion": 6.74, "deceleration": 56.07, "rotation_down": 55.2, "downward_expansion": 80.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.891333, 2.925455, 3.05394, 3.1936 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.95, "trend_reference": 3.368784, "distance_from_trend": -0.124313, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.993743, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.014612, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.56207, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.286043, "excess_performance": -0.293443, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.124313, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03046, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.014612, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.150671, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.135621, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025148, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.286043, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.764266, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 62366746, "relative_activity": 0.538097, "balance": 0.764266, "dry_up": 0.516316, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082952, "annualized_volatility": 0.365388, "from_high_reference": -0.347374, "from_low_reference": 0.084559 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.368784, "fair_value_reference": 2.993743, "structural_low": 2.72, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.003802, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.017003, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.698582, "worst_return": -0.128028, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.010638, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.059726, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.538462, "worst_return": -0.131944, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.142196, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.039485, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.325792, "worst_return": -0.19913, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.025317, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.022588, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.244052, "worst_return": -0.133117, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.003572, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.025362, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018051, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047273, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020134, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053968, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035599, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.028391, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": 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"close": 2.82, "volume": 70534458, "typical_volume": 120068831.65, "trend": 3.389172, "fair_value": 2.991828, "relative_strength": -15.072485, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.281456, "energy": 76.65558, "activity_lines": [ 2.854667, 2.969382, 3.110025, 3.251502 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.92, "volume": 51538039, "typical_volume": 116792325.15, "trend": 3.378312, "fair_value": 2.992995, "relative_strength": -10.322537, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.181884, "energy": 55.592522, "activity_lines": [ 2.868667, 2.942182, 3.078143, 3.221233 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.95, "volume": 62366746, "typical_volume": 115902455.2, "trend": 3.368784, "fair_value": 2.993743, "relative_strength": -13.56207, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.928682, "energy": 46.870532, "activity_lines": [ 2.891333, 2.925455, 3.05394, 3.1936 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }