{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4c394700-5dae-4e09-a28d-390078583378", "symbol": "VONG", "name": "VANGUARD RUSSELL 1000 GROWTH INDEX FUND ETF SHARES", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 64.037, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.342, "architecture_energy": 17.321, "architecture_maturity": 45.61, "architecture_confidence": 78.074, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.03, "rotation_up": 30.57, "upward_expansion": 49.73, "deceleration": 80.74, "rotation_down": 29.83, "downward_expansion": 27.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 124.399333, 124.443597, 124.819703, 122.863368 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 128.28, "trend_reference": 120.792635, "distance_from_trend": 0.061985, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 100.229891, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.279858, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.722613, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.094611, "excess_performance": -0.092843, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.061985, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009436, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.279858, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050745, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.067226, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018991, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.094611, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.344437, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4155750, "relative_activity": 0.540546, "balance": 1.344437, "dry_up": 0.760058, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040384, "annualized_volatility": 0.19989, "from_high_reference": -0.033843, "from_low_reference": 0.220632 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 120.792635, "fair_value_reference": 100.229891, "structural_low": 105.093126, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.002875, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.00206, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.097957, "worst_return": -0.120868, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.069601, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.002624, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.156029, "worst_return": -0.071382, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.100168, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.009728, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.219937, "worst_return": -0.026646, "sufficient": false }, { 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"fair_value": 99.515962, "relative_strength": -7.32956, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.240836, "energy": 14.165983, "activity_lines": [ 123.460667, 124.527751, 124.218352, 122.280485 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 121.91, "volume": 5748856, "typical_volume": 8174177.7, "trend": 120.590621, "fair_value": 99.85021, "relative_strength": -7.047568, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.886309, "energy": 11.425431, "activity_lines": [ 122.861333, 123.847048, 124.238042, 122.367279 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 128.28, "volume": 4155750, "typical_volume": 7688059.05, "trend": 120.792635, "fair_value": 100.229891, "relative_strength": -6.722613, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.341869, "energy": 17.32059, "activity_lines": [ 124.399333, 124.443597, 124.819703, 122.863368 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }