{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4c3a91bc-e3bd-4bec-82dd-c42d06a845f0", "symbol": "BRENT", "name": "Leverage Shares Brent Oil ETC", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 35.843, "architecture_energy": 30.321, "architecture_maturity": 43.026, "architecture_confidence": 60.031, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.55, "rotation_up": 60.7, "upward_expansion": 67.15, "deceleration": 64.96, "rotation_down": 9.92, "downward_expansion": 10.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.747667, 21.962291, 22.565338, 22.279548 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 21.995001, "trend_reference": 20.959267, "distance_from_trend": 0.049417, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.273126, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.351615, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.995694, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.507953, "excess_performance": 0.337061, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.049417, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.158982, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.351615, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.21199, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.069957, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.300361, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.507953, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.27747, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7864, "relative_activity": 0.557406, "balance": 1.27747, "dry_up": 0.707319, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090402, "annualized_volatility": 0.643604, "from_high_reference": -0.206959, "from_low_reference": 0.769509 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.959267, "fair_value_reference": 16.273126, "structural_low": 14.344, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.069789, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.088087, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.069789, "worst_return": 0.069789, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.064352, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.118262, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031254, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.457738, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", 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22.718466, 21.950673, 22.675652, 22.194793 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.995001, "volume": 7864, "typical_volume": 14108.2, "trend": 20.959267, "fair_value": 16.273126, "relative_strength": 6.995694, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.84265, "energy": 30.320876, "activity_lines": [ 22.747667, 21.962291, 22.565338, 22.279548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }