{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4c429203-79af-409d-8133-a0a6ec32b3fc", "symbol": "GCO", "name": "Genesco Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 52.341, "architecture_energy": 31.72, "architecture_maturity": 23.668, "architecture_confidence": 74.101, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.9, "rotation_up": 48.51, "upward_expansion": 73.88, "deceleration": 61.59, "rotation_down": 21.6, "downward_expansion": 5.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.194, 36.604909, 36.342429, 34.816086 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 37.98, "trend_reference": 33.203333, "distance_from_trend": 0.143861, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.594359, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.283353, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.776724, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.306502, "excess_performance": 0.180877, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.143861, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094784, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.283353, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063444, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.077767, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034463, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.306502, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.087116, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 931835, "relative_activity": 0.91965, "balance": 1.087116, "dry_up": 0.807506, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.118499, "annualized_volatility": 0.523309, "from_high_reference": -0.128899, "from_low_reference": 0.732269 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.203333, "fair_value_reference": 29.594359, "structural_low": 24.38, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.049766, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.020681, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.144279, "worst_return": -0.493519, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.038785, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.003971, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.320168, "worst_return": -0.407924, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.02626, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.023512, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.258301, "worst_return": -0.371729, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.024369, 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"2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.210685, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.112199, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.306166, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032379, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.173777, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.230342, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", 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"typical_volume": 1109496.8, "trend": 31.694, "fair_value": 29.343013, "relative_strength": 1.11728, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.802488, "energy": 21.929901, "activity_lines": [ 35.041333, 36.163091, 35.037762, 33.552065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 36.97, "volume": 777777, "typical_volume": 1090037.75, "trend": 32.149333, "fair_value": 29.426346, "relative_strength": 10.675107, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.008528, "energy": 21.123639, "activity_lines": [ 35.256, 36.286727, 35.412952, 33.892452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.69, "volume": 815696, "typical_volume": 1060512.8, "trend": 32.487333, "fair_value": 29.477244, "relative_strength": 7.063224, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.31957, "energy": 17.331657, "activity_lines": [ 35.412667, 36.139818, 35.619905, 34.120882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.22, "volume": 747512, "typical_volume": 1025773.5, "trend": 32.937, "fair_value": 29.534551, "relative_strength": 12.798009, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.453369, "energy": 26.69682, "activity_lines": [ 36.411333, 36.405091, 36.024048, 34.490731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.98, "volume": 931835, "typical_volume": 1013249.7, "trend": 33.203333, "fair_value": 29.594359, "relative_strength": 7.776724, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.341498, "energy": 31.720205, "activity_lines": [ 37.194, 36.604909, 36.342429, 34.816086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }