{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4c50433f-e378-4a25-ab08-d5819dc521f8", "symbol": "ICO", "name": "Iconovo AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.526, "architecture_energy": 69.42, "architecture_maturity": 16.49, "architecture_confidence": 83.085, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.72, "rotation_up": 10.39, "upward_expansion": 14.84, "deceleration": 37.53, "rotation_down": 73.48, "downward_expansion": 90.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.9988, 1.043218, 1.099795, 1.119542 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.958, "trend_reference": 1.135233, "distance_from_trend": -0.156121, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.208429, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.816067, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -40.250854, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.140807, "excess_performance": -0.202302, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.156121, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058158, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.816067, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027742, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.402509, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062888, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.140807, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.966535, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 239230, "relative_activity": 0.97812, "balance": 0.966535, "dry_up": 1.197239, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117874, "annualized_volatility": 0.277042, "from_high_reference": -0.656631, "from_low_reference": 0.101149 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.135233, "fair_value_reference": 5.208429, "structural_low": 0.87, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.065359, "positive_rate": 0.317073, "directional_follow_through": 0.682927, "median_excess_return": -0.072172, "regime_survival": 0.878049, "best_return": 0.50625, "worst_return": -0.480349, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.140351, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.103472, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.235075, "worst_return": -0.514, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.217855, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.334023, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.298932, "worst_return": -0.752641, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.024123, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.206838, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.122402, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.203593, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.566, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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"typical_volume": 268090.2, "trend": 1.152333, "fair_value": 5.727968, "relative_strength": -35.059462, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.463778, "energy": 26.148252, "activity_lines": [ 1.105667, 1.139727, 1.1585, 1.157151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.05, "volume": 132587, "typical_volume": 239689.9, "trend": 1.149, "fair_value": 5.587263, "relative_strength": -35.006487, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.009194, "energy": 43.681349, "activity_lines": [ 1.079333, 1.120636, 1.147476, 1.150548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.964, "volume": 431257, "typical_volume": 243983.4, "trend": 1.1433, "fair_value": 5.446006, "relative_strength": -40.273721, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.189273, "energy": 65.468648, "activity_lines": [ 1.035333, 1.088, 1.128738, 1.138613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.03, "volume": 368216, "typical_volume": 245482.8, "trend": 1.1403, "fair_value": 5.324404, "relative_strength": -35.675666, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.013669, "energy": 59.925049, "activity_lines": [ 1.026067, 1.0712, 1.11741, 1.131303 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.958, "volume": 239230, "typical_volume": 244581.4, "trend": 1.135233, "fair_value": 5.208429, "relative_strength": -40.250854, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.525546, "energy": 69.420376, "activity_lines": [ 0.9988, 1.043218, 1.099795, 1.119542 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }