{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4c50a81b-40ee-404e-a6e7-2e56f1ee7886", "symbol": "RMS", "name": "Ramelius Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -19.395, "architecture_energy": 18.253, "architecture_maturity": 72.989, "architecture_confidence": 79.593, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.06, "rotation_up": 29.87, "upward_expansion": 22.12, "deceleration": 43.81, "rotation_down": 28.23, "downward_expansion": 60.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.205333, 3.136727, 3.201714, 3.373891 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.62, "trend_reference": 3.670731, "distance_from_trend": -0.01382, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.530383, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.430613, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.342125, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.159705, "excess_performance": -0.22341, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.01382, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057433, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.430613, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053546, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.053421, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061095, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.159705, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.864403, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 45096274, "relative_activity": 1.33493, "balance": 0.864403, "dry_up": 0.972001, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074586, "annualized_volatility": 0.456063, "from_high_reference": -0.29324, "from_low_reference": 0.369614 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.670731, "fair_value_reference": 2.530383, "structural_low": 2.81, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.01875, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.003502, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.311258, "worst_return": -0.289855, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.09058, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.070877, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.158672, "worst_return": -0.273409, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.05166, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.008755, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.726707, "worst_return": -0.388136, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-31", "close": 3.05, "volume": 30384537, "typical_volume": 36582005.35, "trend": 3.686716, "fair_value": 2.514677, "relative_strength": -17.40124, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.151373, "energy": 50.60238, "activity_lines": [ 3.01, 3.034727, 3.172952, 3.378195 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.62, "volume": 45096274, "typical_volume": 33781749.15, "trend": 3.670731, "fair_value": 2.530383, "relative_strength": -5.342125, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.394941, "energy": 18.253176, "activity_lines": [ 3.205333, 3.136727, 3.201714, 3.373891 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }