{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4c552849-382f-4dfa-9295-eb64266d54bf", "symbol": "ALNFL", "name": "NFL Biosciences SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.201, "architecture_energy": 37.896, "architecture_maturity": 70.063, "architecture_confidence": 55.919, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.74, "rotation_up": 26.24, "upward_expansion": 16.88, "deceleration": 64.45, "rotation_down": 39.05, "downward_expansion": 64.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.8568, 0.854764, 0.892871, 0.942428 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.87, "trend_reference": 1.031633, "distance_from_trend": -0.156677, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.620776, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.46322, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.762878, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.243478, "excess_performance": -0.29679, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.156677, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060015, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.46322, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006627, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.267629, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060388, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.243478, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.641494, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38580, "relative_activity": 0.32935, "balance": 1.641494, "dry_up": 0.408642, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086118, "annualized_volatility": 0.385888, "from_high_reference": -0.528711, "from_low_reference": 0.074074 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.031633, "fair_value_reference": 1.620776, "structural_low": 0.81, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.013727, "positive_rate": 0.541667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.004886, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.383495, "worst_return": -0.443152, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.040964, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.060908, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.407051, "worst_return": -0.276102, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.028747, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.105118, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.122378, "worst_return": -0.257322, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.532967, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055556, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.110048, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.174686, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052778, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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0.841, "volume": 35445, "typical_volume": 139103.4, "trend": 1.069433, "fair_value": 1.649462, "relative_strength": -28.068982, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.28096, "energy": 64.024571, "activity_lines": [ 0.845067, 0.868109, 0.922762, 0.981437 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.83, "volume": 37737, "typical_volume": 131321.15, "trend": 1.0581, "fair_value": 1.639686, "relative_strength": -28.670111, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.550724, "energy": 51.756465, "activity_lines": [ 0.8412, 0.858109, 0.90909, 0.965989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.87, "volume": 79711, "typical_volume": 121085.8, "trend": 1.0471, "fair_value": 1.629013, "relative_strength": -25.744312, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.800031, "energy": 44.47949, "activity_lines": [ 0.85, 0.856291, 0.90041, 0.953854 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.87, "volume": 38580, "typical_volume": 117139.85, "trend": 1.031633, "fair_value": 1.620776, "relative_strength": -26.762878, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.201199, "energy": 37.895866, "activity_lines": [ 0.8568, 0.854764, 0.892871, 0.942428 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }