{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4c56a5bf-92e2-4f89-96b9-8a0da6686cde", "symbol": "PFMN", "name": "PICTON Market Neutral Equity Alternative Fund ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 89.61, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 35.31, "architecture_energy": 24.352, "architecture_maturity": 57.844, "architecture_confidence": 71.638, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.22, "rotation_up": 23.45, "upward_expansion": 56.68, "deceleration": 91.0, "rotation_down": 30.16, "downward_expansion": 20.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.442, 16.504364, 16.429857, 16.333656 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 16.41, "trend_reference": 16.238666, "distance_from_trend": 0.010551, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.077761, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.088358, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.584895, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.019888, "excess_performance": -0.100533, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010551, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010092, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.088358, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009034, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.095849, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00097, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.019888, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.472335, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 94800, "relative_activity": 0.771296, "balance": 0.472335, "dry_up": 1.422992, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.010617, "annualized_volatility": 0.048921, "from_high_reference": -0.017953, "from_low_reference": 0.086736 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.238666, "fair_value_reference": 15.077761, "structural_low": 15.71, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.004461, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.024152, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.028253, "worst_return": -0.01118, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.012741, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.009796, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.036502, "worst_return": 0.008696, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.032886, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.01361, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.038396, "worst_return": 0.027376, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-09-08", "end": "2023-11-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.00438, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013643, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.129009, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028796, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.023838, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02236, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014493, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017413, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.00183, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 13.232941, "volume": 45700, "typical_volume": 100115.0, "trend": 13.141195, "fair_value": 12.309958, "relative_strength": 2.428231, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", 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15.015586, "relative_strength": -7.536212, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.285175, "energy": 53.090999, "activity_lines": [ 16.571333, 16.537272, 16.381476, 16.292193 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.540001, "volume": 286400, "typical_volume": 123295.0, "trend": 16.223666, "fair_value": 15.037099, "relative_strength": -7.109489, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.783885, "energy": 43.347371, "activity_lines": [ 16.550667, 16.55, 16.410047, 16.313419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.360001, "volume": 112700, "typical_volume": 123355.0, "trend": 16.232666, "fair_value": 15.057395, "relative_strength": -7.322149, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.52475, "energy": 25.420263, "activity_lines": [ 16.478, 16.524546, 16.418619, 16.322215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.41, "volume": 94800, "typical_volume": 122910.0, "trend": 16.238666, "fair_value": 15.077761, "relative_strength": -9.584895, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.31016, "energy": 24.351548, "activity_lines": [ 16.442, 16.504364, 16.429857, 16.333656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }