{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4c5a4879-8d03-4708-b723-4746c55bb417", "symbol": "IOT", "name": "SAMSARA INC", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 86.699, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.488, "architecture_energy": 90.585, "architecture_maturity": 21.176, "architecture_confidence": 79.585, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.56, "rotation_up": 80.19, "upward_expansion": 95.33, "deceleration": 44.67, "rotation_down": 13.33, "downward_expansion": 26.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 646.8, 610.363636, 573.621286, 558.561268 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 657.0, "trend_reference": 540.873665, "distance_from_trend": 0.214701, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 720.223441, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.087783, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.530283, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.515361, "excess_performance": 0.570028, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.214701, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081927, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.087783, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.24495, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.045303, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.377763, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.515361, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 181.888889, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14, "relative_activity": 0.045344, "balance": 181.888889, "dry_up": 0.023482, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042033, "annualized_volatility": 0.821546, "from_high_reference": -0.220641, "from_low_reference": 0.515361 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 540.873665, "fair_value_reference": 720.223441, "structural_low": 433.559998, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042105, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.145161, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-31", 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"energy": 31.715501, "activity_lines": [ 566.866667, 560.2, 542.413714, 536.904558 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 655.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 387.55, "trend": 543.773665, "fair_value": 721.589898, "relative_strength": 3.77718, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.343282, "energy": 82.862038, "activity_lines": [ 601.8, 579.690909, 553.066238, 543.790128 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 655.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 330.55, "trend": 539.273665, "fair_value": 720.888951, "relative_strength": 3.593361, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.588794, "energy": 91.818179, "activity_lines": [ 628.4, 596.290909, 563.433047, 550.966021 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 657.0, "volume": 14, "typical_volume": 308.75, "trend": 540.873665, "fair_value": 720.223441, "relative_strength": 4.530283, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.487544, "energy": 90.584623, "activity_lines": [ 646.8, 610.363636, 573.621286, 558.561268 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }