{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4c5ab470-a93c-404a-871d-a24d520ef3dd", "symbol": "4754", "name": "INternational CArbide Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 51.336, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 70.716, "architecture_energy": 37.168, "architecture_maturity": 16.463, "architecture_confidence": 49.186, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.69, "rotation_up": 46.32, "upward_expansion": 72.17, "deceleration": 67.14, "rotation_down": 21.24, "downward_expansion": 3.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.066668, 36.974812, 36.626013, 36.365125 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 38.200001, "trend_reference": 36.176328, "distance_from_trend": 0.055939, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.723932, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.040194, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -25.785975, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.062078, "excess_performance": -0.379294, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.055939, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002141, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.040194, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049688, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.25786, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079102, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.062078, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.97614, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 373168, "relative_activity": 2.083117, "balance": 1.97614, "dry_up": 1.116556, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02857, "annualized_volatility": 0.108905, "from_high_reference": -0.017995, "from_low_reference": 0.098008 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.176328, "fair_value_reference": 36.723932, "structural_low": 34.790282, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.004209, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.006199, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.048913, "worst_return": -0.024971, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.021866, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.044799, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.077446, "worst_return": -0.025172, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.014874, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.003087, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.186957, "worst_return": -0.008742, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051118, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.064604, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026217, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.003713, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04517, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.020623, 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"relative_strength": -27.479732, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.164531, "energy": 33.20141, "activity_lines": [ 36.860001, 36.828555, 36.361759, 36.198616 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.299999, "volume": 215333, "typical_volume": 169505.85, "trend": 36.104738, "fair_value": 36.743284, "relative_strength": -26.888424, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.34903, "energy": 19.364003, "activity_lines": [ 36.66, 36.760184, 36.388842, 36.211322 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.400002, "volume": 50341, "typical_volume": 164554.4, "trend": 36.111317, "fair_value": 36.728818, "relative_strength": -27.614061, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.260913, "energy": 17.30546, "activity_lines": [ 36.536668, 36.710792, 36.423417, 36.230371 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 38.200001, "volume": 373168, "typical_volume": 179139.25, "trend": 36.176328, "fair_value": 36.723932, "relative_strength": -25.785975, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.716425, "energy": 37.168453, "activity_lines": [ 37.066668, 36.974812, 36.626013, 36.365125 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }