{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4c5c9c09-84af-4514-bc88-64b7b4ac2263", "symbol": "CMP", "name": "Compass Minerals International Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.967, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 20.361, "architecture_energy": 13.805, "architecture_maturity": 46.348, "architecture_confidence": 88.417, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.53, "rotation_up": 18.39, "upward_expansion": 51.1, "deceleration": 92.92, "rotation_down": 31.71, "downward_expansion": 19.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.746, 29.396, 29.292381, 28.126667 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 27.35, "trend_reference": 26.682333, "distance_from_trend": 0.025023, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.069277, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.434244, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.123211, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.257471, "excess_performance": 0.131846, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.025023, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.153614, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.434244, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004632, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.051232, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.137335, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.257471, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.960464, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4028140, "relative_activity": 1.443943, "balance": 0.960464, "dry_up": 0.79815, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.12071, "annualized_volatility": 0.362424, "from_high_reference": -0.207246, "from_low_reference": 0.668192 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.682333, "fair_value_reference": 19.069277, "structural_low": 20.82, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.018608, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.022971, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.18113, "worst_return": -0.317377, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.004348, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.0231, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.422326, "worst_return": -0.359502, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.075316, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.063792, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.809677, "worst_return": -0.59933, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019118, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.116085, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.065195, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.070462, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.120316, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.097896, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"relative_strength": 18.884306, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.829667, "energy": 26.648459, "activity_lines": [ 29.952667, 30.291818, 28.985, 27.643398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.44, "volume": 1597825, "typical_volume": 2892403.95, "trend": 26.212, "fair_value": 19.164718, "relative_strength": 18.988789, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.388037, "energy": 20.832036, "activity_lines": [ 29.704, 30.119455, 29.187429, 27.871828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.34, "volume": 1808075, "typical_volume": 2852929.9, "trend": 26.528, "fair_value": 19.107171, "relative_strength": 16.821835, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.154083, "energy": 17.888287, "activity_lines": [ 29.498, 29.927273, 29.35219, 28.073634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.35, "volume": 4028140, "typical_volume": 2789681.2, "trend": 26.682333, "fair_value": 19.069277, "relative_strength": 5.123211, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.361024, "energy": 13.80494, "activity_lines": [ 28.746, 29.396, 29.292381, 28.126667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }