{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4c5f49cd-06a2-46a0-9414-dc739b6e8966", "symbol": "001216", "name": "Hunan Hualian China Industry Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.968, "architecture_energy": 72.566, "architecture_maturity": 32.218, "architecture_confidence": 95.321, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.19, "rotation_up": 16.87, "upward_expansion": 16.18, "deceleration": 41.71, "rotation_down": 66.34, "downward_expansion": 89.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.656667, 14.123291, 15.187764, 16.096032 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.06, "trend_reference": 17.099014, "distance_from_trend": -0.17773, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.965714, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.006751, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.678151, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.226197, "excess_performance": -0.233597, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.17773, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047379, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.006751, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.291901, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.186782, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083621, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.226197, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.357073, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11987060, "relative_activity": 0.763485, "balance": 0.357073, "dry_up": 0.959053, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08457, "annualized_volatility": 0.450451, "from_high_reference": -0.429615, "from_low_reference": 0.085714 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.099014, "fair_value_reference": 13.965714, "structural_low": 12.95, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.040274, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": 0.03358, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.124498, "worst_return": -0.090895, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.103873, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.028228, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.154382, "worst_return": 0.006084, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.097711, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.043596, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.278891, "worst_return": -0.044106, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-24.800414, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.390047, "energy": 77.993443, "activity_lines": [ 14.858251, 15.40178, 16.468153, 17.085993 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.47, "volume": 15123621, "typical_volume": 23044627.2, "trend": 17.467681, "fair_value": 13.947423, "relative_strength": -19.88378, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.032452, "energy": 89.935171, "activity_lines": [ 14.272, 14.958706, 16.087246, 16.820959 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.09, "volume": 20279807, "typical_volume": 20211794.4, "trend": 17.318015, "fair_value": 13.951415, "relative_strength": -22.136928, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.087284, "energy": 90.512761, "activity_lines": [ 13.683333, 14.526035, 15.704387, 16.538528 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.6, "volume": 12839800, "typical_volume": 16905187.0, "trend": 17.200681, "fair_value": 13.957395, "relative_strength": -17.60995, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.330256, "energy": 85.18117, "activity_lines": [ 13.552, 14.25404, 15.407718, 16.298656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.06, "volume": 11987060, "typical_volume": 15700459.25, "trend": 17.099014, "fair_value": 13.965714, "relative_strength": -18.678151, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.967628, "energy": 72.566264, "activity_lines": [ 13.656667, 14.123291, 15.187764, 16.096032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }