{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4c5f9fa7-73da-497c-ae0d-d5b39144a041", "symbol": "002324", "name": "Shanghai Pret Composites Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.222, "architecture_energy": 87.818, "architecture_maturity": 38.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.724, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.51, "rotation_up": 9.78, "upward_expansion": 21.84, "deceleration": 37.05, "rotation_down": 79.34, "downward_expansion": 97.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.107333, 10.028047, 11.511741, 12.724659 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 9.4, "trend_reference": 14.556569, "distance_from_trend": -0.354243, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.627189, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.19155, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.049478, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.479224, "excess_performance": -0.486624, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.354243, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057735, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.19155, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.514628, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.360495, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.277423, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.479224, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.494883, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 95963415, "relative_activity": 0.936821, "balance": 0.494883, "dry_up": 1.157753, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.126868, "annualized_volatility": 0.492053, "from_high_reference": -0.633671, "from_low_reference": 0.160494 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.556569, "fair_value_reference": 11.627189, "structural_low": 8.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.029171, "positive_rate": 0.423077, "directional_follow_through": 0.576923, "median_excess_return": -0.012241, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.310345, "worst_return": -0.13029, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.008755, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.018444, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.568123, "worst_return": -0.202418, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.000279, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.079909, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.387318, "worst_return": -0.270524, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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14.606003 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.48, "volume": 110769561, "typical_volume": 100820810.35, "trend": 15.225902, "fair_value": 11.752006, "relative_strength": -34.382745, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.701987, "energy": 65.877652, "activity_lines": [ 11.658, 12.143835, 13.305066, 14.294999 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.99, "volume": 96983318, "typical_volume": 101111513.15, "trend": 15.111569, "fair_value": 11.719351, "relative_strength": -37.726395, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.810845, "energy": 86.659887, "activity_lines": [ 10.675333, 11.458937, 12.799509, 13.892683 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.25, "volume": 127927238, "typical_volume": 101363700.55, "trend": 14.966569, "fair_value": 11.68132, "relative_strength": -42.594532, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.110398, "energy": 94.406938, "activity_lines": [ 9.65, 10.760513, 12.266475, 13.450001 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.1, "volume": 153504090, "typical_volume": 102956106.45, "trend": 14.776235, "fair_value": 11.651711, "relative_strength": -35.26555, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.193385, "energy": 89.397396, "activity_lines": [ 9.231333, 10.32668, 11.856346, 13.071512 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.4, "volume": 95963415, "typical_volume": 102435112.8, "trend": 14.556569, "fair_value": 11.627189, "relative_strength": -36.049478, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.221951, "energy": 87.817555, "activity_lines": [ 9.107333, 10.028047, 11.511741, 12.724659 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }