{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4c60987e-5115-48d8-b824-fc385d7ef685", "symbol": "201872", "name": "China Merchants Port Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 78.932, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 21.968, "architecture_energy": 28.814, "architecture_maturity": 72.598, "architecture_confidence": 61.483, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.1, "rotation_up": 59.58, "upward_expansion": 46.25, "deceleration": 50.49, "rotation_down": 21.59, "downward_expansion": 13.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.431841, 16.124058, 16.335721, 16.332859 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 16.559999, "trend_reference": 16.235627, "distance_from_trend": 0.019979, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.691615, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.4164, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.46794, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.056796, "excess_performance": 0.049397, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.019979, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007256, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.4164, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.173412, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.014679, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072188, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.056796, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.704283, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 398342, "relative_activity": 0.464966, "balance": 0.704283, "dry_up": 1.183867, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031185, "annualized_volatility": 0.160698, "from_high_reference": -0.057484, "from_low_reference": 0.187097 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.235627, "fair_value_reference": 11.691615, "structural_low": 15.105863, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.01609, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.004307, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.03293, "worst_return": -0.042526, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.003393, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.021138, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.020962, "worst_return": -0.014175, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.06206, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.099067, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.076031, "worst_return": 0.048089, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.001587, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018684, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015742, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022835, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.147003, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007353, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.032842, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019169, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.004267, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.059809, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 7.20858, "volume": 932862, "typical_volume": 1039173.45, "trend": 6.948831, "fair_value": 6.249385, "relative_strength": 6.617565, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.417616, "volume": 814533, "typical_volume": 829907.7, "trend": 16.145961, "fair_value": 11.452672, "relative_strength": -10.971438, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.935972, "energy": 71.527128, "activity_lines": [ 15.451625, 15.979973, 16.311603, 16.260742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.139999, "volume": 1154469, "typical_volume": 843481.45, "trend": 16.155627, "fair_value": 11.510151, "relative_strength": 2.565436, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.766431, "energy": 58.907915, "activity_lines": [ 15.647704, 15.932176, 16.290323, 16.260357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.42, "volume": 1453514, "typical_volume": 858816.2, "trend": 16.174627, "fair_value": 11.569482, "relative_strength": 4.072411, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.7182, "energy": 21.03533, "activity_lines": [ 15.933673, 15.95747, 16.294805, 16.277413 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.68, "volume": 1050608, "typical_volume": 886355.75, "trend": 16.205961, "fair_value": 11.630933, "relative_strength": 7.373718, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.610995, "energy": 18.20906, "activity_lines": [ 16.253339, 16.046946, 16.322144, 16.310018 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.559999, "volume": 398342, "typical_volume": 856711.8, "trend": 16.235627, "fair_value": 11.691615, "relative_strength": 1.46794, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.96761, "energy": 28.813753, "activity_lines": [ 16.431841, 16.124058, 16.335721, 16.332859 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }