{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4c60a963-c9ea-4728-9777-9fc364ec1b25", "symbol": "PACK", "name": "Ranpak Holdings Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 55.772, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 9.437, "architecture_energy": 19.525, "architecture_maturity": 59.034, "architecture_confidence": 78.966, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.07, "rotation_up": 14.42, "upward_expansion": 51.8, "deceleration": 93.86, "rotation_down": 42.43, "downward_expansion": 22.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.86, 6.31, 6.275238, 5.868516 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.51, "trend_reference": 5.512333, "distance_from_trend": -0.000423, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.544295, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.006186, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.999603, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.041739, "excess_performance": -0.167364, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.000423, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087174, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.006186, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.215819, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.079996, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.336182, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.041739, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.753183, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3527208, "relative_activity": 1.274702, "balance": 0.753183, "dry_up": 1.101642, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.159081, "annualized_volatility": 0.830968, "from_high_reference": -0.294494, "from_low_reference": 0.71118 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.512333, "fair_value_reference": 5.544295, "structural_low": 3.22, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.032885, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.0283, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.311475, "worst_return": -0.416667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.07218, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.021844, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.230928, "worst_return": -0.483143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.087927, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.050356, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.185567, "worst_return": -0.369027, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.576694, "energy": 27.060889, "activity_lines": [ 6.701333, 6.850364, 6.341381, 5.897269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.12, "volume": 4023191, "typical_volume": 2719201.35, "trend": 5.531, "fair_value": 5.543654, "relative_strength": -11.320813, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.285392, "energy": 16.43441, "activity_lines": [ 6.142667, 6.534182, 6.293762, 5.869871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.51, "volume": 3527208, "typical_volume": 2767084.15, "trend": 5.512333, "fair_value": 5.544295, "relative_strength": -7.999603, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.436646, "energy": 19.525095, "activity_lines": [ 5.86, 6.31, 6.275238, 5.868516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }