{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4c686608-eb1b-4235-a579-8d0a5d754ec7", "symbol": "BT27", "name": "AMUNDI FIX 27 ITALY BTP GOV UCI", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 57.849, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 5.383, "architecture_energy": 13.925, "architecture_maturity": 26.057, "architecture_confidence": 58.92, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.73, "rotation_up": 32.4, "upward_expansion": 32.45, "deceleration": 48.95, "rotation_down": 15.04, "downward_expansion": 43.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.306, 10.302473, 10.291483, 10.304204 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 10.316, "trend_reference": 10.330241, "distance_from_trend": -0.001379, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.190136, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.012352, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.726264, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.010361, "excess_performance": -0.181252, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001379, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002686, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.012352, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003858, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.147263, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016974, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.010361, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.3519, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12746, "relative_activity": 1.304947, "balance": 1.3519, "dry_up": 2.628936, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.001663, "annualized_volatility": 0.020024, "from_high_reference": -0.012823, "from_low_reference": 0.008727 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.330241, "fair_value_reference": 10.190136, "structural_low": 10.226748, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.00148, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009816, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004649, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001748, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-05-03", 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decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.243027, "energy": 19.772346, "activity_lines": [ 10.301467, 10.298616, 10.289169, 10.305307 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.316, "volume": 12746, "typical_volume": 9767.45, "trend": 10.330241, "fair_value": 10.190136, "relative_strength": -14.726264, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 5.382639, "energy": 13.924726, "activity_lines": [ 10.306, 10.302473, 10.291483, 10.304204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }