{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4c6b461a-53f9-4824-aee0-7b843993fc0a", "symbol": "AIPU", "name": "BNP PARIBAS EASY II USD Credit PAB Opportunities UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 62.369, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 27.251, "architecture_energy": 29.582, "architecture_maturity": 57.307, "architecture_confidence": 76.016, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.67, "rotation_up": 21.26, "upward_expansion": 57.24, "deceleration": 91.17, "rotation_down": 41.44, "downward_expansion": 25.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.508867, 10.553764, 10.511479, 10.478898 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 10.4735, "trend_reference": 10.433467, "distance_from_trend": 0.003837, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.317321, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.015138, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.623124, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.016943, "excess_performance": -0.153948, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003837, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006576, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.015138, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009764, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.136231, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020849, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.016943, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.458128, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2769, "relative_activity": 0.565304, "balance": 1.458128, "dry_up": 0.533762, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.006603, "annualized_volatility": 0.043159, "from_high_reference": -0.020711, "from_low_reference": 0.034573 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.433467, "fair_value_reference": 10.317321, "structural_low": 10.299, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.00509, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.015733, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.0081, "worst_return": 0.002081, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.014345, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.041874, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.014345, "worst_return": 0.014345, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.043669, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.10559, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.043669, "worst_return": 0.043669, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010919, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009125, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018891, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.011943, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0081, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01423, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007234, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013725, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010715, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005614, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-12-08", "close": 9.927, "volume": 2030, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-12-15", "close": 9.927, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-12-22", "close": 9.911, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, 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"volume": 3667, "typical_volume": 5167.35, "trend": 10.42615, "fair_value": 10.315221, "relative_strength": -10.599241, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.975592, "energy": 59.736837, "activity_lines": [ 10.599967, 10.586509, 10.512174, 10.474573 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.451, "volume": 1182, "typical_volume": 4816.3, "trend": 10.431317, "fair_value": 10.316198, "relative_strength": -11.633492, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.150176, "energy": 25.330612, "activity_lines": [ 10.542533, 10.568545, 10.510681, 10.476176 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.4735, "volume": 2769, "typical_volume": 4898.25, "trend": 10.433467, "fair_value": 10.317321, "relative_strength": -13.623124, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.251173, "energy": 29.582405, "activity_lines": [ 10.508867, 10.553764, 10.511479, 10.478898 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }