{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4c7067d5-7d0c-4bf7-8eff-4337030a7502", "symbol": "HMES", "name": "HSBC MSCI Europe UCITS ETF", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.731, "architecture_energy": 76.966, "architecture_maturity": 41.937, "architecture_confidence": 86.05, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.09, "rotation_up": 63.58, "upward_expansion": 88.9, "deceleration": 51.31, "rotation_down": 23.6, "downward_expansion": 15.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.426333, 25.272909, 24.819976, 24.438462 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 25.82, "trend_reference": 24.041667, "distance_from_trend": 0.073969, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.238462, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.275789, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.522337, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.093836, "excess_performance": 0.040525, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.073969, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04048, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.275789, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064561, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.045223, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012773, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.093836, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.68285, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16272, "relative_activity": 0.824141, "balance": 0.68285, "dry_up": 0.729227, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01713, "annualized_volatility": 0.144614, "from_high_reference": -0.003474, "from_low_reference": 0.242541 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.041667, "fair_value_reference": 20.238462, "structural_low": 21.58, "invalidation": 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25.09, "volume": 8670, "typical_volume": 29806.25, "trend": 23.786667, "fair_value": 20.070801, "relative_strength": 6.799054, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.357401, "energy": 81.258794, "activity_lines": [ 25.152667, 24.933, 24.418833, 24.132387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.184999, "volume": 18575, "typical_volume": 25043.8, "trend": 23.874833, "fair_value": 20.123064, "relative_strength": 6.532363, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.462772, "energy": 76.051684, "activity_lines": [ 25.179333, 25.023182, 24.537, 24.222602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.360001, "volume": 14075, "typical_volume": 23217.9, "trend": 23.959333, "fair_value": 20.179269, "relative_strength": 5.332526, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.085726, "energy": 61.318945, "activity_lines": [ 25.241334, 25.115091, 24.662381, 24.318419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.82, "volume": 16272, "typical_volume": 19744.2, "trend": 24.041667, "fair_value": 20.238462, "relative_strength": 4.522337, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.730803, "energy": 76.965508, "activity_lines": [ 25.426333, 25.272909, 24.819976, 24.438462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }