{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4c71fccf-6fb9-4fb3-9ca9-3a3a29f907f4", "symbol": "002817", "name": "Anhui Huangshan Capsule Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.91, "architecture_energy": 50.247, "architecture_maturity": 69.476, "architecture_confidence": 86.165, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.58, "rotation_up": 27.28, "upward_expansion": 8.7, "deceleration": 60.61, "rotation_down": 44.29, "downward_expansion": 77.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.104, 6.114545, 6.567196, 6.939432 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.34, "trend_reference": 7.362766, "distance_from_trend": -0.138911, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.001099, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.094428, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.823829, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.214547, "excess_performance": -0.221946, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.138911, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070368, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.094428, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.234471, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.188238, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045095, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.214547, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.334983, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30364833, "relative_activity": 1.063109, "balance": 0.334983, "dry_up": 1.24055, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082584, "annualized_volatility": 0.327585, "from_high_reference": -0.259195, "from_low_reference": 0.146474 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.362766, "fair_value_reference": 7.001099, "structural_low": 5.53, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.011714, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.040575, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.165819, "worst_return": -0.130822, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.106383, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.109063, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.262371, "worst_return": -0.18416, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.017714, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.164397, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.551576, "worst_return": -0.214623, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"close": 6.34, "volume": 30364833, "typical_volume": 28562298.0, "trend": 7.362766, "fair_value": 7.001099, "relative_strength": -18.823829, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.910387, "energy": 50.24696, "activity_lines": [ 6.104, 6.114545, 6.567196, 6.939432 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }