{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4c7d1642-6499-46e0-aabc-34dcda807b7b", "symbol": "AC", "name": "Accor SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 61.353, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 29.837, "architecture_energy": 26.596, "architecture_maturity": 60.365, "architecture_confidence": 81.818, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.75, "rotation_up": 22.04, "upward_expansion": 55.81, "deceleration": 91.0, "rotation_down": 37.41, "downward_expansion": 21.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.406667, 47.393455, 46.395666, 45.504703 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 46.799999, "trend_reference": 44.910853, "distance_from_trend": 0.042064, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 39.837045, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.174786, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.901423, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.012237, "excess_performance": -0.065548, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.042064, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015821, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.174786, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05808, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.009014, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018257, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.012237, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.966794, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3646679, "relative_activity": 1.08259, "balance": 0.966794, "dry_up": 0.99673, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049183, "annualized_volatility": 0.316438, "from_high_reference": -0.090556, "from_low_reference": 0.283513 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.910853, "fair_value_reference": 39.837045, "structural_low": 36.462413, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.004584, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.017889, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.074139, "worst_return": -0.153312, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.020717, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.029459, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.172711, "worst_return": -0.170367, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.031961, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.046315, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.10101, "worst_return": -0.052116, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029445, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034438, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022899, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.073266, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.106229, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.14642, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": 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3251413, "typical_volume": 3958863.35, "trend": 44.936567, "fair_value": 39.540472, "relative_strength": 3.191794, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.823253, "energy": 65.644785, "activity_lines": [ 48.758001, 48.036405, 45.929212, 45.280286 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.310001, "volume": 3245682, "typical_volume": 3725713.5, "trend": 44.939113, "fair_value": 39.637137, "relative_strength": 1.909809, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.923382, "energy": 37.517125, "activity_lines": [ 47.849335, 47.923175, 46.128904, 45.368895 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.139999, "volume": 3286079, "typical_volume": 3648400.75, "trend": 44.895859, "fair_value": 39.733299, "relative_strength": -2.22071, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.818021, "energy": 22.87866, "activity_lines": [ 46.683334, 47.522364, 46.197053, 45.381855 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.799999, "volume": 3646679, "typical_volume": 3368477.6, "trend": 44.910853, "fair_value": 39.837045, "relative_strength": -0.901423, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.836915, "energy": 26.595885, "activity_lines": [ 46.406667, 47.393455, 46.395666, 45.504703 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }