{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4c7dca3a-1869-4184-acaa-134b1a536bb0", "symbol": "NFO", "name": "NFO Drives AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.444, "architecture_energy": 45.279, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.387, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.76, "rotation_up": 24.08, "upward_expansion": 6.41, "deceleration": 49.45, "rotation_down": 51.8, "downward_expansion": 79.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.78, 6.867273, 7.4, 7.82871 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.7, "trend_reference": 8.525, "distance_from_trend": -0.214076, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.370192, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.71331, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -48.591066, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.390909, "excess_performance": -0.452403, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.214076, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.191688, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.71331, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062629, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.485911, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049041, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.390909, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.307177, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 704, "relative_activity": 0.170281, "balance": 1.307177, "dry_up": 0.363661, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.13318, "annualized_volatility": 0.674434, "from_high_reference": -0.695455, "from_low_reference": 0.063492 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.525, "fair_value_reference": 23.370192, "structural_low": 6.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.060403, "positive_rate": 0.37037, "directional_follow_through": 0.592593, "median_excess_return": -0.053062, "regime_survival": 0.925926, "best_return": 0.18792, "worst_return": -0.28655, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.197703, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.215121, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.170068, "worst_return": -0.386503, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.395752, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.467375, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": -0.07027, "worst_return": -0.44958, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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7.0, "volume": 2641, "typical_volume": 4245.3, "trend": 8.826667, "fair_value": 23.732692, "relative_strength": -46.80764, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.00727, "energy": 39.738825, "activity_lines": [ 7.036667, 7.106364, 7.661667, 8.102796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.55, "volume": 32, "typical_volume": 4205.85, "trend": 8.671667, "fair_value": 23.550321, "relative_strength": -49.899191, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.024546, "energy": 45.964693, "activity_lines": [ 6.883333, 6.950909, 7.519048, 7.955914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.7, "volume": 704, "typical_volume": 4134.35, "trend": 8.525, "fair_value": 23.370192, "relative_strength": -48.591066, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.444273, "energy": 45.278673, "activity_lines": [ 6.78, 6.867273, 7.4, 7.82871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }