{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4c7ffc12-fd32-43f3-9019-969f67cb6776", "symbol": "600802", "name": "Fujian Cement Inc.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.083, "architecture_energy": 59.82, "architecture_maturity": 90.775, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.57, "rotation_up": 26.51, "upward_expansion": 10.85, "deceleration": 60.76, "rotation_down": 54.98, "downward_expansion": 84.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.202, 4.256727, 4.643381, 4.982065 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.38, "trend_reference": 5.429667, "distance_from_trend": -0.193321, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.712885, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.070633, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.300287, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.304762, "excess_performance": -0.261558, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.193321, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.152497, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.070633, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.306743, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.243003, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.164524, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.304762, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.269579, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34480408, "relative_activity": 0.916201, "balance": 0.269579, "dry_up": 0.961099, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089568, "annualized_volatility": 0.306474, "from_high_reference": -0.519737, "from_low_reference": 0.2 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.429667, "fair_value_reference": 4.712885, "structural_low": 3.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.023337, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.017326, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.230216, "worst_return": -0.165165, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.003607, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.039045, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.536842, "worst_return": -0.263793, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.033336, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.025046, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.382456, "worst_return": -0.272959, "sufficient": true }, { 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{ "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-09-01", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.047348, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.002551, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.031746, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.26257, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": 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"activity_lines": [ 4.338667, 4.617091, 5.05081, 5.366473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.14, "volume": 37025339, "typical_volume": 40463381.4, "trend": 5.694667, "fair_value": 4.728718, "relative_strength": -26.236114, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.477592, "energy": 89.414947, "activity_lines": [ 4.246, 4.479273, 4.930429, 5.259032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.9, "volume": 42799584, "typical_volume": 39605180.85, "trend": 5.596, "fair_value": 4.722179, "relative_strength": -31.055148, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.996458, "energy": 77.727132, "activity_lines": [ 4.117333, 4.329455, 4.798524, 5.143247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.22, "volume": 30375180, "typical_volume": 38407552.95, "trend": 5.502333, "fair_value": 4.7175, "relative_strength": -25.377465, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.907434, "energy": 65.277734, "activity_lines": [ 4.134, 4.267818, 4.708857, 5.054473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.38, "volume": 34480408, "typical_volume": 37634114.5, "trend": 5.429667, "fair_value": 4.712885, "relative_strength": -24.300287, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.083116, "energy": 59.8197, "activity_lines": [ 4.202, 4.256727, 4.643381, 4.982065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }