{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4c831ae5-e95b-4bc2-8f7d-7f0cf06d7aeb", "symbol": "SPXU", "name": "BetaPro S&P 500 2x Daily Bull ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.759, "architecture_energy": 50.864, "architecture_maturity": 57.287, "architecture_confidence": 82.871, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.6, "rotation_up": 52.56, "upward_expansion": 80.18, "deceleration": 63.55, "rotation_down": 26.48, "downward_expansion": 6.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.576, 36.243455, 35.737, 34.574172 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 38.360001, "trend_reference": 33.322333, "distance_from_trend": 0.15118, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.449679, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.507288, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.371402, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.201378, "excess_performance": 0.080957, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.15118, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049566, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.507288, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012521, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.063714, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003214, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.201378, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.071972, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 632700, "relative_activity": 0.815377, "balance": 3.071972, "dry_up": 0.881199, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04157, "annualized_volatility": 0.283967, "from_high_reference": -0.009809, "from_low_reference": 0.463005 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.322333, "fair_value_reference": 25.449679, "structural_low": 26.219999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.032546, "positive_rate": 0.675676, "directional_follow_through": 0.675676, "median_excess_return": 0.009933, "regime_survival": 0.756757, "best_return": 0.123251, "worst_return": -0.157221, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.062905, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 1.1e-05, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.192584, "worst_return": -0.207635, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.124721, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.012924, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.277255, "worst_return": -0.332686, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.206956, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.201966, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009921, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.137223, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.177587, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.074027, 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25.184679, "relative_strength": 0.409301, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.748764, "energy": 39.269239, "activity_lines": [ 35.762667, 35.812, 35.119476, 34.053204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.82, "volume": 932000, "typical_volume": 820220.0, "trend": 33.125333, "fair_value": 25.308654, "relative_strength": 2.66392, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.549346, "energy": 33.974063, "activity_lines": [ 35.786, 35.792545, 35.323476, 34.236452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.360001, "volume": 632700, "typical_volume": 775960.0, "trend": 33.322333, "fair_value": 25.449679, "relative_strength": 6.371402, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.758745, "energy": 50.864446, "activity_lines": [ 36.576, 36.243455, 35.737, 34.574172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }