{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4c8ba11a-da2e-4833-b80e-2fad7df7c199", "symbol": "CNDF", "name": "Caisse R\u00e9gionale de Cr\u00e9dit Agricole Mutuel Nord de France Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 coop\u00e9rative", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.373, "architecture_energy": 15.675, "architecture_maturity": 40.968, "architecture_confidence": 91.384, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.85, "rotation_up": 26.01, "upward_expansion": 53.68, "deceleration": 89.29, "rotation_down": 24.74, "downward_expansion": 17.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.385667, 29.651273, 29.423369, 28.512512 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 29.780001, "trend_reference": 27.683689, "distance_from_trend": 0.075724, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.661606, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.686143, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.654223, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.117153, "excess_performance": 0.063841, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.075724, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057108, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.686143, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039634, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.046542, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066791, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.117153, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.960892, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 46981, "relative_activity": 1.058394, "balance": 1.960892, "dry_up": 1.21858, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088908, "annualized_volatility": 0.42746, "from_high_reference": -0.197845, "from_low_reference": 0.505966 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.683689, "fair_value_reference": 17.661606, "structural_low": 22.721501, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.001129, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.006247, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.085683, "worst_return": -0.029102, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 9.3e-05, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.048986, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.15136, "worst_return": -0.070677, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.159987, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.164546, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.728738, "worst_return": 0.061384, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.460772, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.048886, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.024435, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.121755, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024787, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.535, "volume": 61111, "typical_volume": 43971.45, "trend": 27.502451, "fair_value": 17.431323, "relative_strength": 9.105911, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.380039, "energy": 20.762483, "activity_lines": [ 29.070667, 29.963546, 29.095862, 28.243915 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.485001, "volume": 48005, "typical_volume": 44180.65, "trend": 27.599301, "fair_value": 17.546373, "relative_strength": 6.626722, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.730617, "energy": 18.902455, "activity_lines": [ 29.204334, 29.788637, 29.258152, 28.371822 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.780001, "volume": 46981, "typical_volume": 44388.95, "trend": 27.683689, "fair_value": 17.661606, "relative_strength": 4.654223, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.373387, "energy": 15.674803, "activity_lines": [ 29.385667, 29.651273, 29.423369, 28.512512 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }