{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4c9660c6-c628-4296-a503-d362537de76a", "symbol": "XSTR", "name": "Xtrackers II GBP Overnight Rate Swap UCITS ETF 1D", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 63.573, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.146, "architecture_energy": 76.789, "architecture_maturity": 4.541, "architecture_confidence": 76.309, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.65, "rotation_up": 74.38, "upward_expansion": 95.69, "deceleration": 39.98, "rotation_down": 14.33, "downward_expansion": 17.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 18276.666667, 18255.809091, 18213.740476, 18182.295724 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 18290.0, "trend_reference": 18167.072721, "distance_from_trend": 0.006766, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18204.6562, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.004688, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.261617, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.001334, "excess_performance": -0.052569, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006766, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000405, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.004688, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008796, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.072616, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00924, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.001334, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 55595, "relative_activity": 1.121591, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 0.857453, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.003035, "annualized_volatility": 0.026882, "from_high_reference": -0.009692, "from_low_reference": 0.026432 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18167.072721, "fair_value_reference": 18204.6562, "structural_low": 17819.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.00074, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.020556, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.003868, "worst_return": -0.020993, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.011622, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.111111, "median_excess_return": -0.008535, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.00734, "worst_return": -0.01311, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.001917, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.028071, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.005686, "worst_return": -0.002968, 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72.145825, "energy": 76.789193, "activity_lines": [ 18276.666667, 18255.809091, 18213.740476, 18182.295724 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }