{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4ca140bf-16a5-4dda-8ff0-20f7c607d5fc", "symbol": "GDR", "name": "genedrive plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.345, "architecture_energy": 22.532, "architecture_maturity": 53.705, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.36, "rotation_up": 24.06, "upward_expansion": 46.27, "deceleration": 87.27, "rotation_down": 44.19, "downward_expansion": 32.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.011017, 0.011586, 0.011565, 0.011277 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.012, "trend_reference": 0.010972, "distance_from_trend": 0.09374, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.030097, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.601291, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 19.560282, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.043478, "excess_performance": -0.007757, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.09374, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.101022, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.601291, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.15399, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.195603, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.19215, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.043478, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.851625, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31211042, "relative_activity": 1.207414, "balance": 2.851625, "dry_up": 1.071649, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.161795, "annualized_volatility": 0.535208, "from_high_reference": -0.172414, "from_low_reference": 5.315789 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.010972, "fair_value_reference": 0.030097, "structural_low": 0.009, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.095238, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.131105, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.131579, "worst_return": -0.191011, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.111289, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.101848, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.238095, "worst_return": -0.460674, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.662921, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.630357, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.662921, "worst_return": -0.662921, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"direction": 56.879808, "energy": 39.014255, "activity_lines": [ 0.01285, 0.012659, 0.011692, 0.011285 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.0105, "volume": 43065163, "typical_volume": 25086803.4, "trend": 0.010755, "fair_value": 0.032459, "relative_strength": 5.411081, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.428321, "energy": 17.661818, "activity_lines": [ 0.0121, 0.012336, 0.011636, 0.011273 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0105, "volume": 21093871, "typical_volume": 25155323.35, "trend": 0.010822, "fair_value": 0.031655, "relative_strength": 5.099001, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.952859, "energy": 14.740993, "activity_lines": [ 0.01145, 0.012014, 0.01158, 0.011256 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.01, "volume": 15436291, "typical_volume": 24854562.3, "trend": 0.010863, "fair_value": 0.030854, "relative_strength": -0.347066, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.341177, "energy": 17.326912, "activity_lines": [ 0.0108, 0.011605, 0.011476, 0.011203 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.012, "volume": 31211042, "typical_volume": 25849499.5, "trend": 0.010972, "fair_value": 0.030097, "relative_strength": 19.560282, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.345275, "energy": 22.532268, "activity_lines": [ 0.011017, 0.011586, 0.011565, 0.011277 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }