{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4ca29e92-e6ab-440d-9b28-60d55dc5165c", "symbol": "002543", "name": "Guangdong Vanward New Electric Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.804, "architecture_energy": 52.598, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 64.048, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.12, "rotation_up": 27.71, "upward_expansion": 21.75, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 42.67, "downward_expansion": 69.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.538, 6.51745, 6.88601, 7.377009 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.55, "trend_reference": 8.097557, "distance_from_trend": -0.191114, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.485757, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.309491, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.733725, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.34761, "excess_performance": -0.355009, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.191114, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.145908, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.309491, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.160983, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.347337, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046664, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.34761, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.663517, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19871447, "relative_activity": 0.872206, "balance": 0.663517, "dry_up": 1.022393, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063635, "annualized_volatility": 0.296115, "from_high_reference": -0.537629, "from_low_reference": 0.059871 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.097557, "fair_value_reference": 9.485757, "structural_low": 6.18, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.016326, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.023406, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.212147, "worst_return": -0.157462, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.034074, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.062743, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.279151, "worst_return": -0.297735, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.027472, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.08235, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.939259, "worst_return": -0.344411, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"direction": -68.495995, "energy": 88.110881, "activity_lines": [ 6.442, 6.718564, 7.318518, 7.856894 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.63, "volume": 28076009, "typical_volume": 28956608.7, "trend": 8.458223, "fair_value": 9.502806, "relative_strength": -34.254158, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.702535, "energy": 67.13154, "activity_lines": [ 6.488, 6.647549, 7.199915, 7.731848 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.26, "volume": 25269981, "typical_volume": 28613760.8, "trend": 8.332223, "fair_value": 9.495603, "relative_strength": -37.218263, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.049664, "energy": 68.829948, "activity_lines": [ 6.424, 6.536405, 7.058502, 7.590027 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.7, "volume": 19955248, "typical_volume": 27508517.25, "trend": 8.219557, "fair_value": 9.491398, "relative_strength": -30.793164, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.871194, "energy": 61.034092, "activity_lines": [ 6.523333, 6.532458, 6.972041, 7.484722 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.55, "volume": 19871447, "typical_volume": 22782981.15, "trend": 8.097557, "fair_value": 9.485757, "relative_strength": -34.733725, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.803701, "energy": 52.597824, "activity_lines": [ 6.538, 6.51745, 6.88601, 7.377009 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }