{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4caba878-95ec-4325-857e-8d29f9a2923d", "symbol": "BNG", "name": "Bengal Energy Ltd.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.979, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -43.189, "architecture_energy": 74.676, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 69.393, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.4, "rotation_up": 16.38, "upward_expansion": 26.17, "deceleration": 43.16, "rotation_down": 75.52, "downward_expansion": 67.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.020667, 0.024, 0.029905, 0.031097 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.02, "trend_reference": 0.030333, "distance_from_trend": -0.340659, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.024038, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.168, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.022242, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": -0.120421, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.340659, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.151899, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.168, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.704946, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.250222, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.005439, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 161500, "relative_activity": 0.360878, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.522267, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.269231, "annualized_volatility": 1.614841, "from_high_reference": -0.8, "from_low_reference": 1.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.030333, "fair_value_reference": 0.024038, "structural_low": 0.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.222222, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.179323, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.333333, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.383856, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.666667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.444444, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.54363, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.222222, "worst_return": -0.666667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.388889, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.526662, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.333333, "worst_return": -0.444444, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 1.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 1.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.05, "volume": 23300, "typical_volume": 58175.0, "trend": 0.063333, "fair_value": 0.077115, "relative_strength": -27.066321, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.83519, "energy": 47.991071, "activity_lines": [ 0.05, 0.051455, 0.05419, 0.058 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 0.05, "volume": 64300, "typical_volume": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 0.02, "volume": 597100, "typical_volume": 462225.0, "trend": 0.029333, "fair_value": 0.024615, "relative_strength": -22.919672, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -51.014038, "energy": 69.200226, "activity_lines": [ 0.026667, 0.03, 0.034238, 0.032968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.02, "volume": 56000, "typical_volume": 459310.0, "trend": 0.029667, "fair_value": 0.024423, "relative_strength": -22.822258, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -49.210983, "energy": 76.425384, "activity_lines": [ 0.024, 0.027636, 0.032762, 0.032366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.02, "volume": 120300, "typical_volume": 442885.0, "trend": 0.03, "fair_value": 0.024231, "relative_strength": -22.908926, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -50.767096, "energy": 79.864168, "activity_lines": [ 0.022, 0.025636, 0.031333, 0.031742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.02, "volume": 161500, "typical_volume": 447520.0, "trend": 0.030333, "fair_value": 0.024038, "relative_strength": -25.022242, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.189209, "energy": 74.676299, "activity_lines": [ 0.020667, 0.024, 0.029905, 0.031097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }