{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4cb48f8d-b72c-486b-9b96-e6c52ebf7fca", "symbol": "600105", "name": "Jiangsu Etern Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 77.673, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.886, "architecture_energy": 36.883, "architecture_maturity": 38.705, "architecture_confidence": 41.257, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.42, "rotation_up": 14.05, "upward_expansion": 17.5, "deceleration": 67.09, "rotation_down": 65.25, "downward_expansion": 42.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.871334, 43.664541, 46.479878, 43.739018 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 39.0, "trend_reference": 39.417964, "distance_from_trend": -0.010603, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.242704, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.945018, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 36.991134, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.475596, "excess_performance": 0.5188, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.010603, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.337856, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.945018, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -2.173553, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.369911, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.116062, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.475596, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.028055, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1018688348, "relative_activity": 1.647562, "balance": 1.028055, "dry_up": 1.252706, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.244167, "annualized_volatility": 0.923201, "from_high_reference": -0.47226, "from_low_reference": 3.487253 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.417964, "fair_value_reference": 13.242704, "structural_low": 24.110001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.024, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.000192, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.379935, "worst_return": -0.152475, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.122666, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.113323, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.857549, "worst_return": -0.330693, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.053531, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.091762, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.9091, "worst_return": -0.416309, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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12.869387, "relative_strength": 26.188468, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.63518, "energy": 19.631638, "activity_lines": [ 43.337334, 48.901254, 48.219439, 44.168949 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.040001, "volume": 902818870, "typical_volume": 592820137.95, "trend": 38.954631, "fair_value": 13.031346, "relative_strength": 18.014664, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.048158, "energy": 40.252122, "activity_lines": [ 37.822001, 45.511462, 47.028777, 43.736091 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.0, "volume": 1018688348, "typical_volume": 618300576.9, "trend": 39.417964, "fair_value": 13.242704, "relative_strength": 36.991134, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.88622, "energy": 36.883323, "activity_lines": [ 36.871334, 43.664541, 46.479878, 43.739018 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }