{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4cb6715b-1c10-418e-8e5b-6fbbb9f5dc89", "symbol": "SP20", "name": "iShares S&P 500 Top 20 UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 69.98, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.361, "architecture_energy": 38.475, "architecture_maturity": 40.435, "architecture_confidence": 54.82, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.97, "rotation_up": 42.89, "upward_expansion": 68.32, "deceleration": 71.92, "rotation_down": 24.91, "downward_expansion": 8.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.8901, 4.863436, 4.857643, 4.764692 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.054, "trend_reference": 4.652517, "distance_from_trend": 0.086294, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.278578, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.181234, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.769406, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.146552, "excess_performance": 0.095316, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.086294, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01852, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.181234, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012617, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.017694, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044607, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.146552, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.834808, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 566274, "relative_activity": 0.996347, "balance": 0.834808, "dry_up": 0.957923, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032605, "annualized_volatility": 0.189058, "from_high_reference": -0.008631, "from_low_reference": 0.833125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.652517, "fair_value_reference": 4.278578, "structural_low": 4.094, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.008716, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.026424, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.008716, "worst_return": -0.008716, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.062537, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.048874, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-22", "close": 3.9405, "volume": 114076, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-29", "close": 3.927, "volume": 138241, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": 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"up", "direction": 40.726766, "energy": 25.95369, "activity_lines": [ 4.8381, 4.880927, 4.795936, 4.702771 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.8225, "volume": 383122, "typical_volume": 521491.9, "trend": 4.623417, "fair_value": 4.257793, "relative_strength": -0.192044, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.039017, "energy": 22.956866, "activity_lines": [ 4.834733, 4.864336, 4.810131, 4.716125 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.8135, "volume": 575012, "typical_volume": 536565.8, "trend": 4.6302, "fair_value": 4.264108, "relative_strength": -1.62681, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.656568, "energy": 22.787704, "activity_lines": [ 4.826767, 4.8471, 4.821348, 4.728388 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.7765, "volume": 653337, "typical_volume": 553335.7, "trend": 4.637583, "fair_value": 4.269865, "relative_strength": -3.512754, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.843537, "energy": 19.33697, "activity_lines": [ 4.8135, 4.827964, 4.827225, 4.737827 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.054, "volume": 566274, "typical_volume": 568350.45, "trend": 4.652517, "fair_value": 4.278578, "relative_strength": 1.769406, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.361033, "energy": 38.475306, "activity_lines": [ 4.8901, 4.863436, 4.857643, 4.764692 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }