{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4cbf77b3-e7de-44c8-8991-b9447e04b341", "symbol": "9836", "name": "iShares Asia Trust - iShares Core SENSEX India ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 77.055, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -0.751, "architecture_energy": 2.906, "architecture_maturity": 14.701, "architecture_confidence": 85.471, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 72.65, "rotation_up": 25.78, "upward_expansion": 27.16, "deceleration": 43.69, "rotation_down": 22.52, "downward_expansion": 46.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.535467, 4.526255, 4.501429, 4.531645 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.61, "trend_reference": 4.619733, "distance_from_trend": -0.002107, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.935743, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.065997, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.804125, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.085317, "excess_performance": -0.051736, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002107, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048235, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.065997, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009526, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.048041, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078795, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.085317, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.910737, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.910737, "dry_up": 0.758618, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026965, "annualized_volatility": 0.174839, "from_high_reference": -0.133351, "from_low_reference": 0.16473 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.619733, "fair_value_reference": 4.935743, "structural_low": 3.958, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.011765, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.023356, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.046967, "worst_return": -0.054409, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.02622, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.123159, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.037182, "worst_return": -0.099062, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.071593, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.172661, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.023452, "worst_return": -0.119734, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.020781, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.321491, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.020781, "worst_return": -0.020781, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037523, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.044186, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040117, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032946, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007685, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007851, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025692, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034483, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02015, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006654, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.851509, "energy": 23.318823, "activity_lines": [ 4.5396, 4.492945, 4.493676, 4.571022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.498, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 9470.0, "trend": 4.684967, "fair_value": 4.934884, "relative_strength": -3.762072, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.594091, "energy": 15.470866, "activity_lines": [ 4.531867, 4.497345, 4.491048, 4.557492 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.404, "volume": 21356, "typical_volume": 10527.8, "trend": 4.6576, "fair_value": 4.934136, "relative_strength": -7.019821, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.956804, "energy": 24.461453, "activity_lines": [ 4.485067, 4.485709, 4.481667, 4.539366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.564, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 7087.8, "trend": 4.636067, "fair_value": 4.93483, "relative_strength": -6.764542, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.240241, "energy": 15.588661, "activity_lines": [ 4.502667, 4.503382, 4.489381, 4.533327 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.61, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 7037.8, "trend": 4.619733, "fair_value": 4.935743, "relative_strength": -4.804125, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.750959, "energy": 2.905984, "activity_lines": [ 4.535467, 4.526255, 4.501429, 4.531645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }