{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "4cc0dffd-947d-4fed-aa12-9343f7907cb2",
    "symbol": "KBWP",
    "name": "INVESCO KBW PROPERTY & CASUALTY INSURANCE ETF",
    "exchange": "NASDAQ",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "QQQ",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 88.938,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 72.025,
    "architecture_energy": 75.602,
    "architecture_maturity": 14.047,
    "architecture_confidence": 69.766,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 12.68,
        "rotation_up": 79.76,
        "upward_expansion": 94.29,
        "deceleration": 42.14,
        "rotation_down": 10.45,
        "downward_expansion": 16.29
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        127.301423,
        125.287249
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      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 1.0
    },
    "latest_close": 135.8526,
    "trend_reference": 123.436215,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.100589,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 110.154616,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.23329,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -3.062071,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.079939,
    "excess_performance": -0.107514,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.100589,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.016856,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.23329,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.129007,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.030621,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.162697,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.079939,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 3.017278,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 86326,
      "relative_activity": 1.173849,
      "balance": 3.017278,
      "dry_up": 1.328399,
      "accumulation_observations": 5,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.038517,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.186452,
      "from_high_reference": -0.032182,
      "from_low_reference": 0.200663
    },
    "levels": {
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      "fair_value_reference": 110.154616,
      "structural_low": 114.395229,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 36,
        "median_return": -0.004448,
        "positive_rate": 0.472222,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.472222,
        "median_excess_return": 0.000112,
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        "worst_return": -0.105183,
        "sufficient": true
      },
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        "horizon": "Intermediate",
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        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "typical_volume": 133564.25,
        "trend": 121.488939,
        "fair_value": 105.613172,
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        "stage": 3,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "stage": 3,
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 33.17317,
        "energy": 28.544841,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 133.7859,
        "volume": 64499,
        "typical_volume": 65087.55,
        "trend": 121.919145,
        "fair_value": 108.381934,
        "relative_strength": -3.911563,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 48.095078,
        "energy": 64.044265,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 132.2467,
        "volume": 171292,
        "typical_volume": 69771.0,
        "trend": 122.168092,
        "fair_value": 108.744044,
        "relative_strength": -6.453264,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 51.630506,
        "energy": 73.502471,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 133.4871,
        "volume": 89690,
        "typical_volume": 69902.95,
        "trend": 122.419344,
        "fair_value": 109.088319,
        "relative_strength": -1.307204,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 76.779097,
        "energy": 86.056839,
        "activity_lines": [
          131.459944,
          127.179586,
          123.655475,
          122.855684
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 134.962,
        "volume": 79408,
        "typical_volume": 70910.9,
        "trend": 122.686285,
        "fair_value": 109.438756,
        "relative_strength": 1.490009,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 74.921076,
        "energy": 86.7532,
        "activity_lines": [
          133.342767,
          129.149226,
          124.89869,
          123.664888
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 135.03,
        "volume": 135343,
        "typical_volume": 73573.05,
        "trend": 123.049717,
        "fair_value": 109.792983,
        "relative_strength": 1.101209,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 71.518156,
        "energy": 82.506872,
        "activity_lines": [
          134.24924,
          130.82907,
          126.096598,
          124.461257
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 135.8526,
        "volume": 86326,
        "typical_volume": 73540.95,
        "trend": 123.436215,
        "fair_value": 110.154616,
        "relative_strength": -3.062071,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 72.025011,
        "energy": 75.601834,
        "activity_lines": [
          134.899327,
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          127.301423,
          125.287249
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}