{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4cc45fc5-8e03-44cf-bdbf-3d36b7cc8931", "symbol": "FCAB", "name": "Fidelity Absolute Income Fund -ETF Series", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 75.667, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Neutral compression", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -24.613, "architecture_energy": 35.116, "architecture_maturity": 2.119, "architecture_confidence": 66.296, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.04, "rotation_up": 20.32, "upward_expansion": 15.9, "deceleration": 45.17, "rotation_down": 58.76, "downward_expansion": 52.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.601744, 24.664179, 24.697219, 24.689594 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 24.66, "trend_reference": 24.696748, "distance_from_trend": -0.001488, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.208041, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.01867, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.995621, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.003282, "excess_performance": -0.123704, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001488, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00211, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.01867, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008067, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.109956, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010179, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.003282, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.892614, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27100, "relative_activity": 0.748412, "balance": 0.892614, "dry_up": 0.994891, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007551, "annualized_volatility": 0.047247, "from_high_reference": -0.015795, "from_low_reference": 0.026979 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.696748, "fair_value_reference": 24.208041, "structural_low": 24.268179, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2025-01-31", "close": 23.311071, "volume": 39300, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-02-07", "close": 23.348307, "volume": 31500, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { 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null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.533001, "volume": 34500, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.549999, "volume": 40000, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.66, "volume": 27100, "typical_volume": 36210.0, "trend": 24.696748, "fair_value": 24.208041, "relative_strength": -10.995621, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.612714, "energy": 35.116137, "activity_lines": [ 24.601744, 24.664179, 24.697219, 24.689594 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }