{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4cc675d5-fb40-4136-9918-6ff534874051", "symbol": "COFF", "name": "WisdomTree Coffee", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 73.343, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.438, "architecture_energy": 80.285, "architecture_maturity": 24.602, "architecture_confidence": 66.042, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.43, "rotation_up": 79.28, "upward_expansion": 93.83, "deceleration": 42.51, "rotation_down": 8.75, "downward_expansion": 18.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 60.438001, 57.655001, 53.87531, 52.868484 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 61.990002, "trend_reference": 52.4215, "distance_from_trend": 0.18253, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 45.018076, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.377002, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.620706, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.234615, "excess_performance": 0.063723, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.18253, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044159, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.377002, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.245389, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.056207, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.178235, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.234615, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.603223, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13011, "relative_activity": 0.902962, "balance": 1.603223, "dry_up": 1.712077, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071147, "annualized_volatility": 0.335961, "from_high_reference": -0.109339, "from_low_reference": 0.43429 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.4215, "fair_value_reference": 45.018076, "structural_low": 43.220001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.025616, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.001192, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.040848, "worst_return": 0.009609, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.118986, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.050536, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.149783, "worst_return": 0.08819, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.050141, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.088362, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.244531, "worst_return": -0.144249, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 61.400002, "volume": 59237, "typical_volume": 12392.05, "trend": 52.3215, "fair_value": 44.037551, "relative_strength": -4.509457, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 45.970927, "energy": 46.786443, "activity_lines": [ 54.776668, 51.345001, 50.508643, 50.91156 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 58.970001, "volume": 27417, "typical_volume": 13345.45, "trend": 52.3675, "fair_value": 44.276886, "relative_strength": -6.971975, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.15665, "energy": 58.522358, "activity_lines": [ 57.025335, 53.047365, 51.328977, 51.340495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 58.0, "volume": 21125, "typical_volume": 13976.45, "trend": 52.3585, "fair_value": 44.510681, "relative_strength": -8.359611, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.490594, "energy": 68.496464, "activity_lines": [ 58.057334, 54.376274, 52.003358, 51.703882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 60.82, "volume": 37126, "typical_volume": 14993.7, "trend": 52.400167, "fair_value": 44.759147, "relative_strength": -4.632162, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 45.619788, "energy": 72.885531, "activity_lines": [ 59.414001, 56.021364, 52.908548, 52.249785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 61.990002, "volume": 13011, "typical_volume": 14409.25, "trend": 52.4215, "fair_value": 45.018076, "relative_strength": -5.620706, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.43783, "energy": 80.285227, "activity_lines": [ 60.438001, 57.655001, 53.87531, 52.868484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }