{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4cc8c5ad-4203-4cc3-b8b6-597b0db91e1f", "symbol": "BTCE", "name": "Bitwise Physical Bitcoin ETC", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.339, "architecture_energy": 37.437, "architecture_maturity": 27.423, "architecture_confidence": 67.3, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.9, "rotation_up": 26.07, "upward_expansion": 17.23, "deceleration": 65.92, "rotation_down": 35.75, "downward_expansion": 62.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.092532, 48.752909, 51.01, 52.109432 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 49.627998, "trend_reference": 54.1642, "distance_from_trend": -0.083749, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 60.742577, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.182978, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.719769, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.055209, "excess_performance": -0.10852, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.083749, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116094, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.182978, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.208567, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.287198, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088087, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.055209, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.194475, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1019, "relative_activity": 0.576912, "balance": 0.194475, "dry_up": 0.303318, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054792, "annualized_volatility": 0.373048, "from_high_reference": -0.482503, "from_low_reference": 0.07887 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 54.1642, "fair_value_reference": 60.742577, "structural_low": 46.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.027953, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.013507, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.155205, "worst_return": -0.08693, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.032879, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.082635, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.278249, "worst_return": -0.192489, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.188624, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.267319, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.38502, "worst_return": -0.355763, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.031307, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.078549, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.068585, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.039016, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.073782, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.134106, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.147238, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.074759, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029172, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 22.450001, "volume": 40360, "typical_volume": 16240.5, "trend": 23.488133, "fair_value": 28.313164, "relative_strength": 3.716121, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.98524, "energy": 12.522567, "activity_lines": [ 24.173734, 24.800364, 24.614905, 24.293277 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 22.562, "volume": 33774, "typical_volume": 17853.55, "trend": 23.5702, "fair_value": 28.264009, "relative_strength": 3.327003, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.144762, "energy": 30.087658, "activity_lines": [ 23.515867, 24.367564, 24.424924, 24.233527 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 22.416, "volume": 20860, "typical_volume": 18413.8, "trend": 23.638, "fair_value": 28.214449, "relative_strength": 1.756123, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.747298, "energy": 41.335832, "activity_lines": [ 22.9848, 23.899273, 24.228667, 24.159062 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-08", "close": 22.594, "volume": 3197, "typical_volume": 18349.4, "trend": 23.746533, "fair_value": 28.167219, "relative_strength": 3.447866, "stage": 1, "regime": 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1879.65, "trend": 56.690134, "fair_value": 60.127808, "relative_strength": -29.549841, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.910731, "energy": 76.044468, "activity_lines": [ 48.3724, 49.9556, 52.615629, 53.852349 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 48.813999, "volume": 437, "typical_volume": 1837.05, "trend": 56.080267, "fair_value": 60.279218, "relative_strength": -29.693783, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.772676, "energy": 57.072708, "activity_lines": [ 48.528667, 49.316109, 52.1692, 53.344211 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.709999, "volume": 277, "typical_volume": 1816.4, "trend": 55.5306, "fair_value": 60.437244, "relative_strength": -27.789747, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.237072, "energy": 46.970544, "activity_lines": [ 48.996266, 49.044218, 51.812619, 52.933226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.98, "volume": 410, "typical_volume": 1749.35, "trend": 54.8462, "fair_value": 60.585461, "relative_strength": -30.414688, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.238605, "energy": 41.665097, "activity_lines": [ 48.8148, 48.651309, 51.314981, 52.44609 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.627998, "volume": 1019, "typical_volume": 1766.3, "trend": 54.1642, "fair_value": 60.742577, "relative_strength": -28.719769, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.338622, "energy": 37.436907, "activity_lines": [ 49.092532, 48.752909, 51.01, 52.109432 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }