{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4ccd3f37-f82d-4334-847a-6f56809ab33d", "symbol": "LUZC", "name": "Luzon Credit and Finance Ltd", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -84.192, "architecture_energy": 91.172, "architecture_maturity": 33.464, "architecture_confidence": 82.93, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.04, "rotation_up": 9.0, "upward_expansion": 21.49, "deceleration": 37.1, "rotation_down": 85.32, "downward_expansion": 99.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.471267, 0.490309, 0.5132, 0.527419 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.453, "trend_reference": 0.544667, "distance_from_trend": -0.168299, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.460308, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.015876, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.413441, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.210801, "excess_performance": -0.239702, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.168299, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034336, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.015876, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.209704, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.254134, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003774, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.210801, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.023875, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 104536, "relative_activity": 0.32815, "balance": 0.023875, "dry_up": 1.207677, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057395, "annualized_volatility": 0.233443, "from_high_reference": -0.31155, "from_low_reference": 0.015695 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.544667, "fair_value_reference": 0.460308, "structural_low": 0.446, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.012941, "positive_rate": 0.323529, "directional_follow_through": 0.676471, "median_excess_return": -0.015483, "regime_survival": 0.882353, "best_return": 0.299559, "worst_return": -0.242424, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.092421, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.073289, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.133425, "worst_return": -0.317585, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.146087, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.250887, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.291262, "worst_return": -0.470468, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.507576, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.516032, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": -0.236838, "worst_return": -0.512015, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-07-01", "end": "2023-10-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.530435, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-10-13", "end": "2023-11-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.140768, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.400433, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.089655, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.196481, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.2325, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.119403, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.005386, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02924, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": 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"activity_lines": [ 0.5084, 0.517945, 0.533481, 0.543062 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.498, "volume": 15697, "typical_volume": 395059.05, "trend": 0.549867, "fair_value": 0.46116, "relative_strength": -20.993353, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.627232, "energy": 74.345395, "activity_lines": [ 0.5024, 0.512855, 0.529205, 0.539576 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.456, "volume": 1297342, "typical_volume": 359761.2, "trend": 0.547567, "fair_value": 0.460571, "relative_strength": -25.266249, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.242489, "energy": 84.816615, "activity_lines": [ 0.484533, 0.501055, 0.521138, 0.53352 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.453, "volume": 104536, "typical_volume": 318561.9, "trend": 0.544667, "fair_value": 0.460308, "relative_strength": -25.413441, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.192447, "energy": 91.171931, "activity_lines": [ 0.471267, 0.490309, 0.5132, 0.527419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }