{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4cd2db37-de7e-4e69-89f3-6a97ace4002b", "symbol": "PEGA", "name": "Pegasystems Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.418, "architecture_energy": 41.614, "architecture_maturity": 92.658, "architecture_confidence": 79.818, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.42, "rotation_up": 27.29, "upward_expansion": 6.02, "deceleration": 59.39, "rotation_down": 41.09, "downward_expansion": 74.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.794667, 30.872958, 32.544035, 34.809228 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 32.74, "trend_reference": 38.122916, "distance_from_trend": -0.141199, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 39.104375, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.162754, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.1345, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.183369, "excess_performance": -0.370823, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.141199, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.190438, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.162754, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096658, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.391345, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027836, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.183369, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.100865, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7673335, "relative_activity": 0.644182, "balance": 1.100865, "dry_up": 1.608542, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111024, "annualized_volatility": 0.549808, "from_high_reference": -0.518638, "from_low_reference": 0.304382 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.122916, "fair_value_reference": 39.104375, "structural_low": 25.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.052743, "positive_rate": 0.217391, "directional_follow_through": 0.782609, "median_excess_return": -0.026488, "regime_survival": 0.869565, "best_return": 0.4482, "worst_return": -0.250487, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.141508, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.072553, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.528822, "worst_return": -0.411289, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.243838, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.057657, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.563904, "worst_return": -0.595539, "sufficient": true }, { 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"typical_volume": 11752976.05, "trend": 39.810556, "fair_value": 39.004108, "relative_strength": -48.685127, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.114976, "energy": 60.734499, "activity_lines": [ 29.953355, 30.91515, 33.262723, 35.808074 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.55, "volume": 19640429, "typical_volume": 12054251.3, "trend": 38.961547, "fair_value": 39.046569, "relative_strength": -40.985024, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.655241, "energy": 49.382273, "activity_lines": [ 30.002333, 30.660718, 32.770831, 35.210618 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.74, "volume": 7673335, "typical_volume": 11911755.7, "trend": 38.122916, "fair_value": 39.104375, "relative_strength": -39.1345, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.41765, "energy": 41.614096, "activity_lines": [ 30.794667, 30.872958, 32.544035, 34.809228 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }