{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4cd7d244-d0cc-42b2-b8a9-92e4df680092", "symbol": "ALPA", "name": "Alpa Laboratories Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 68.883, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 14.343, "architecture_energy": 9.098, "architecture_maturity": 32.506, "architecture_confidence": 63.025, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 67.24, "rotation_up": 22.69, "upward_expansion": 44.16, "deceleration": 82.06, "rotation_down": 27.8, "downward_expansion": 26.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 67.636664, 67.981453, 68.294047, 67.303161 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 68.089996, "trend_reference": 66.674334, "distance_from_trend": 0.021232, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 91.788974, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.25819, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.469616, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.040986, "excess_performance": 0.002723, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.021232, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051961, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.25819, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029986, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.084696, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035123, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.040986, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.726911, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 114043, "relative_activity": 1.2314, "balance": 1.726911, "dry_up": 1.121693, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068631, "annualized_volatility": 0.495022, "from_high_reference": -0.325842, "from_low_reference": 0.477006 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 66.674334, "fair_value_reference": 91.788974, "structural_low": 46.099998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.001709, "positive_rate": 0.47619, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": -0.027569, "regime_survival": 0.47619, "best_return": 0.161895, "worst_return": -0.14534, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.004302, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.068951, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.564912, "worst_return": -0.129803, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.114859, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.038737, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.811167, "worst_return": -0.119155, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"2026-07-31", "close": 66.839996, "volume": 44938, "typical_volume": 93186.95, "trend": 66.912, "fair_value": 91.840961, "relative_strength": -10.133906, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.462527, "energy": 8.920932, "activity_lines": [ 67.571331, 68.076181, 68.15619, 67.227161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 68.089996, "volume": 114043, "typical_volume": 92612.5, "trend": 66.674334, "fair_value": 91.788974, "relative_strength": -8.469616, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.342845, "energy": 9.098162, "activity_lines": [ 67.636664, 67.981453, 68.294047, 67.303161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }