{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4cd9d9be-36bb-4629-bfce-564d74026bf1", "symbol": "VOLT", "name": "WisdomTree Battery Solutions UCITS ETF - USD Acc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 60.186, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -29.902, "architecture_energy": 63.754, "architecture_maturity": 10.489, "architecture_confidence": 79.457, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.6, "rotation_up": 14.32, "upward_expansion": 29.28, "deceleration": 49.44, "rotation_down": 73.34, "downward_expansion": 58.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.3565, 50.188682, 53.47544, 53.407317 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 49.982498, "trend_reference": 52.953833, "distance_from_trend": -0.056112, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.037296, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.349518, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.403303, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.015698, "excess_performance": -0.035537, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.056112, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035109, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.349518, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.349978, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.064033, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.373451, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.015698, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.39108, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2307, "relative_activity": 0.218283, "balance": 0.39108, "dry_up": 0.520681, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068611, "annualized_volatility": 0.318946, "from_high_reference": -0.215222, "from_low_reference": 0.369384 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.953833, "fair_value_reference": 37.037296, "structural_low": 45.235001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.078477, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.082632, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.078477, "worst_return": -0.078477, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.074447, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.099069, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.074447, "worst_return": -0.074447, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.182992, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.14437, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.182992, "worst_return": -0.182992, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 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"tenure": "Established", "return": -0.023897, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.1601, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.075845, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.341201, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03389, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032175, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.122635, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.025115, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.108303, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.050604, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 35.325001, "volume": 5814, "typical_volume": 18625.3, "trend": 38.746333, "fair_value": 42.276154, "relative_strength": -4.610336, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.70933, "energy": 41.627507, 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"fair_value": 36.904556, "relative_strength": -9.163545, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.048015, "energy": 68.625627, "activity_lines": [ 49.067667, 52.238273, 54.569048, 53.971731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.172501, "volume": 6704, "typical_volume": 13765.95, "trend": 52.948583, "fair_value": 36.955149, "relative_strength": -11.197388, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.470069, "energy": 71.473443, "activity_lines": [ 48.061834, 50.817819, 53.883095, 53.598678 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.982498, "volume": 2307, "typical_volume": 10568.85, "trend": 52.953833, "fair_value": 37.037296, "relative_strength": -6.403303, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.90186, "energy": 63.754389, "activity_lines": [ 48.3565, 50.188682, 53.47544, 53.407317 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }