{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4ce34890-661c-40bc-bbc1-f9cf912754a3", "symbol": "FMAT", "name": "FIDELITY COVINGTON TRUST MSCI MATERIALS INDEX ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 58.759, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 1.611, "architecture_energy": 6.632, "architecture_maturity": 22.416, "architecture_confidence": 78.652, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 66.7, "rotation_up": 28.33, "upward_expansion": 11.7, "deceleration": 48.95, "rotation_down": 41.47, "downward_expansion": 46.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 58.435333, 58.574117, 58.751364, 58.701032 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 60.48, "trend_reference": 58.706813, "distance_from_trend": 0.030204, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 50.445864, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.198909, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.252353, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.014432, "excess_performance": -0.111193, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.030204, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03995, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.198909, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008978, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032524, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021987, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.014432, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.176346, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 170005, "relative_activity": 0.579044, "balance": 1.176346, "dry_up": 0.608775, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036546, "annualized_volatility": 0.209409, "from_high_reference": -0.030607, "from_low_reference": 0.254169 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 58.706813, "fair_value_reference": 50.445864, "structural_low": 53.381395, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.027423, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.013311, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.057903, "worst_return": -0.103073, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.051271, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.007767, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.127032, "worst_return": -0.012262, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.027139, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.004426, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.138202, "worst_return": -0.004016, 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-5.037336, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.229232, "energy": 7.378322, "activity_lines": [ 58.326333, 58.684305, 58.739402, 58.697714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 57.95, "volume": 213061, "typical_volume": 296605.65, "trend": 58.461318, "fair_value": 50.264204, "relative_strength": -3.102613, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.626705, "energy": 13.712774, "activity_lines": [ 58.058, 58.546936, 58.696069, 58.673668 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 56.98, "volume": 154621, "typical_volume": 295128.9, "trend": 58.574546, "fair_value": 50.34226, "relative_strength": -5.691106, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.886708, "energy": 32.046888, "activity_lines": [ 57.584333, 58.232211, 58.558235, 58.5781 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 60.48, "volume": 170005, "typical_volume": 293596.1, "trend": 58.706813, "fair_value": 50.445864, "relative_strength": -3.252353, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.610656, "energy": 6.632281, "activity_lines": [ 58.435333, 58.574117, 58.751364, 58.701032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }