{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4cea1a67-2aeb-4ddf-8d22-39fbc5413c71", "symbol": "FTXL", "name": "FIRST TRUST NASDAQ SEMICONDUCTOR ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 13.662, "architecture_energy": 19.259, "architecture_maturity": 74.527, "architecture_confidence": 75.205, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.62, "rotation_up": 17.49, "upward_expansion": 45.95, "deceleration": 87.95, "rotation_down": 36.11, "downward_expansion": 26.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 229.612667, 240.460582, 240.553038, 224.424121 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 236.49, "trend_reference": 202.286242, "distance_from_trend": 0.169086, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 112.008544, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.111357, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 26.840459, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.533097, "excess_performance": 0.345644, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.169086, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.246086, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.111357, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.378179, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.268405, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.324108, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.533097, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.22423, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 866651, "relative_activity": 0.622608, "balance": 1.22423, "dry_up": 1.498075, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.126216, "annualized_volatility": 0.478738, "from_high_reference": -0.204601, "from_low_reference": 1.489363 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 202.286242, "fair_value_reference": 112.008544, "structural_low": 138.16, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.064509, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.030905, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.263428, "worst_return": -0.032879, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.087998, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.012096, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.937616, "worst_return": -0.085497, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.068457, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.027327, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.25513, "worst_return": -0.073175, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"trend": 190.05062, "fair_value": 108.001257, "relative_strength": 42.262361, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.478878, "energy": 51.984044, "activity_lines": [ 261.083545, 259.544426, 236.886916, 216.038605 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 226.74, "volume": 1088875, "typical_volume": 1120811.75, "trend": 193.297668, "fair_value": 109.000424, "relative_strength": 30.956236, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.304381, "energy": 29.59269, "activity_lines": [ 248.064239, 254.283063, 238.293208, 218.405662 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 229.35, "volume": 4114797, "typical_volume": 1298626.65, "trend": 196.555413, "fair_value": 109.994547, "relative_strength": 32.937951, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.495068, "energy": 25.044173, "activity_lines": [ 238.798, 249.766601, 239.611386, 220.731619 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 216.54, "volume": 2270771, "typical_volume": 1385172.6, "trend": 199.240814, "fair_value": 110.926494, "relative_strength": 23.490503, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.387475, "energy": 22.018298, "activity_lines": [ 229.249333, 243.014875, 239.295362, 222.020947 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 236.49, "volume": 866651, "typical_volume": 1391968.95, "trend": 202.286242, "fair_value": 112.008544, "relative_strength": 26.840459, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.662075, "energy": 19.259066, "activity_lines": [ 229.612667, 240.460582, 240.553038, 224.424121 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }