{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4cef5b6f-3019-46e4-84f2-05c48b181b7a", "symbol": "QQQT", "name": "DEFIANCE NASDAQ 100 INCOME TARGET ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 79.797, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 26.962, "architecture_energy": 19.79, "architecture_maturity": 64.206, "architecture_confidence": 80.937, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.07, "rotation_up": 23.84, "upward_expansion": 48.09, "deceleration": 84.9, "rotation_down": 32.58, "downward_expansion": 26.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.626352, 17.772261, 17.804229, 17.396638 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 18.1208, "trend_reference": 16.899453, "distance_from_trend": 0.072271, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.017424, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.206652, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.558725, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.141662, "excess_performance": -0.045792, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.072271, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03735, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.206652, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028472, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.035587, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001692, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.141662, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.409746, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 253617, "relative_activity": 1.359157, "balance": 1.409746, "dry_up": 1.010423, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044572, "annualized_volatility": 0.201094, "from_high_reference": -0.041289, "from_low_reference": 0.248879 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.899453, "fair_value_reference": 15.017424, "structural_low": 14.509652, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022376, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001079, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047894, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.125559, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.184683, "energy": 22.29262, "activity_lines": [ 17.580116, 17.877756, 17.71632, 17.280125 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.322704, "volume": 271011, "typical_volume": 177349.5, "trend": 16.83997, "fair_value": 14.989466, "relative_strength": -3.220293, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.812622, "energy": 20.570778, "activity_lines": [ 17.445717, 17.744276, 17.726715, 17.314004 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.1208, "volume": 253617, "typical_volume": 186598.8, "trend": 16.899453, "fair_value": 15.017424, "relative_strength": -3.558725, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.962007, "energy": 19.790151, "activity_lines": [ 17.626352, 17.772261, 17.804229, 17.396638 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }