{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4cf71d9b-1af0-4160-bccd-f9c3d5662f89", "symbol": "RIVN", "name": "Rivian Automotive, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 61.741, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.108, "architecture_energy": 16.523, "architecture_maturity": 15.194, "architecture_confidence": 76.997, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.74, "rotation_up": 30.84, "upward_expansion": 52.85, "deceleration": 82.69, "rotation_down": 32.79, "downward_expansion": 25.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 280.523999, 286.964545, 281.901475, 278.992429 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 279.089996, "trend_reference": 276.274999, "distance_from_trend": 0.010189, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 267.424359, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.043622, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.342952, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.085024, "excess_performance": 0.139691, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010189, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041199, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.043622, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.14657, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.02343, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.17669, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.085024, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.469458, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6210, "relative_activity": 0.559512, "balance": 0.469458, "dry_up": 2.035688, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115245, "annualized_volatility": 0.577103, "from_high_reference": -0.314275, "from_low_reference": 0.292083 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 276.274999, "fair_value_reference": 267.424359, "structural_low": 220.399994, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.032769, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.018653, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.627817, "worst_return": -0.167864, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.098643, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.036174, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.529672, "worst_return": -0.128207, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.089744, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.098286, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.48248, "worst_return": 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269.676521, 277.443031 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 287.720001, "volume": 218, "typical_volume": 17728.8, "trend": 288.511999, "fair_value": 272.096795, "relative_strength": -0.858489, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.553215, "energy": 8.782292, "activity_lines": [ 276.745331, 271.843271, 271.374045, 277.410687 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 275.0, "volume": 79, "typical_volume": 17527.85, "trend": 288.611999, "fair_value": 272.367179, "relative_strength": -4.673273, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.773956, "energy": 16.244009, "activity_lines": [ 279.185998, 272.325453, 271.797188, 276.538945 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 274.100006, "volume": 833, "typical_volume": 17265.05, "trend": 287.449, "fair_value": 272.300192, "relative_strength": -4.14946, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.126198, "energy": 13.999046, "activity_lines": [ 278.993335, 272.455091, 272.03938, 275.602687 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 324.720001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 16396.8, "trend": 287.273, "fair_value": 271.67359, "relative_strength": 13.515856, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.459297, "energy": 40.244859, "activity_lines": [ 293.712669, 282.168364, 277.022142, 278.007268 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 306.5, "volume": 7270, "typical_volume": 9654.1, "trend": 287.494667, "fair_value": 270.974936, "relative_strength": 7.911005, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.788353, "energy": 41.536763, "activity_lines": [ 299.426668, 287.971818, 280.177856, 279.247719 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 303.709991, "volume": 76777, "typical_volume": 13009.3, "trend": 284.154666, "fair_value": 270.165385, "relative_strength": 6.711356, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.119908, "energy": 43.496986, "activity_lines": [ 302.793998, 292.967999, 282.850713, 280.293869 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 279.910004, "volume": 3980, "typical_volume": 12830.3, "trend": 281.144999, "fair_value": 269.080513, "relative_strength": -1.137129, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.849938, "energy": 34.509052, "activity_lines": [ 297.161999, 292.544, 283.050666, 280.02002 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 264.690002, "volume": 3409, "typical_volume": 11152.85, "trend": 278.562666, "fair_value": 267.995192, "relative_strength": -7.219969, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.659967, "energy": 11.464168, "activity_lines": [ 286.129333, 288.627091, 281.777714, 278.958407 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 279.089996, "volume": 6210, "typical_volume": 11098.95, "trend": 276.274999, "fair_value": 267.424359, "relative_strength": -2.342952, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.107742, "energy": 16.523062, "activity_lines": [ 280.523999, 286.964545, 281.901475, 278.992429 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }