{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4cfa4718-1c53-4e8a-8bc0-c09afc7f0e88", "symbol": "603036", "name": "Jiangsu Rutong Petro-Machinery Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.191, "architecture_energy": 72.878, "architecture_maturity": 59.9, "architecture_confidence": 90.804, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.58, "rotation_up": 17.14, "upward_expansion": 15.33, "deceleration": 43.99, "rotation_down": 70.48, "downward_expansion": 90.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.266667, 12.873455, 13.91631, 15.10534 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 13.07, "trend_reference": 16.837229, "distance_from_trend": -0.223744, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.613544, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.105624, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.879318, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.374919, "excess_performance": -0.331715, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.223744, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125734, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.105624, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.292527, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.288793, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105233, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.374919, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.549184, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 42086194, "relative_activity": 2.152393, "balance": 0.549184, "dry_up": 1.376231, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092036, "annualized_volatility": 0.3905, "from_high_reference": -0.441216, "from_low_reference": 0.21808 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.837229, "fair_value_reference": 14.613544, "structural_low": 10.73, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.007391, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.013464, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.392758, "worst_return": -0.118132, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.094692, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.068829, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.965594, "worst_return": -0.174342, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.431764, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.350293, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.647442, "worst_return": 0.260237, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 14.590008, "relative_strength": -34.483047, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.345885, "energy": 87.390372, "activity_lines": [ 12.576667, 13.291083, 14.517708, 15.738909 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.6, "volume": 18798500, "typical_volume": 18575099.8, "trend": 17.102805, "fair_value": 14.596148, "relative_strength": -35.427411, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.918999, "energy": 90.357928, "activity_lines": [ 12.078, 12.921636, 14.130095, 15.36552 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.07, "volume": 42086194, "typical_volume": 19553209.5, "trend": 16.837229, "fair_value": 14.613544, "relative_strength": -28.879318, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.191257, "energy": 72.87802, "activity_lines": [ 12.266667, 12.873455, 13.91631, 15.10534 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }