{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4cfb7bf7-6c04-4c77-9e69-0cae8cbda7a8", "symbol": "600585", "name": "Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.029, "architecture_energy": 41.708, "architecture_maturity": 95.387, "architecture_confidence": 88.352, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.21, "rotation_up": 27.95, "upward_expansion": 21.47, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 31.66, "downward_expansion": 66.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.92, 17.659267, 18.363594, 19.545687 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 17.76, "trend_reference": 21.013832, "distance_from_trend": -0.154842, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.348787, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.205326, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.647265, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.275693, "excess_performance": -0.232489, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.154842, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074601, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.205326, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09847, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.186473, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008641, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.275693, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.746272, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 169549115, "relative_activity": 1.361753, "balance": 0.746272, "dry_up": 1.353305, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052827, "annualized_volatility": 0.217579, "from_high_reference": -0.340512, "from_low_reference": 0.072905 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.013832, "fair_value_reference": 22.348787, "structural_low": 16.553183, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.022018, "positive_rate": 0.645161, "directional_follow_through": 0.354839, "median_excess_return": 0.020833, "regime_survival": 0.677419, "best_return": 0.265224, "worst_return": -0.130581, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.00105, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.052042, "regime_survival": 0.307692, "best_return": 0.214394, "worst_return": -0.18982, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.039482, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.014869, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.254152, "worst_return": -0.217868, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"fair_value": 22.420127, "relative_strength": -16.864425, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.46601, "energy": 66.58496, "activity_lines": [ 17.231175, 17.590594, 18.935141, 20.174794 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.77, "volume": 177881785, "typical_volume": 124246257.45, "trend": 21.271833, "fair_value": 22.395723, "relative_strength": -17.03097, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.463437, "energy": 62.245157, "activity_lines": [ 17.446855, 17.539572, 18.68507, 19.939386 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.559999, "volume": 147967295, "typical_volume": 123331709.2, "trend": 21.150499, "fair_value": 22.375557, "relative_strength": -13.193745, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.3529, "energy": 50.162598, "activity_lines": [ 17.883333, 17.668292, 18.546284, 19.764429 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.76, "volume": 169549115, "typical_volume": 124507977.55, "trend": 21.013832, "fair_value": 22.348787, "relative_strength": -18.647265, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.029443, "energy": 41.708439, "activity_lines": [ 17.92, 17.659267, 18.363594, 19.545687 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }