{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4cff2646-d2d8-4d72-a736-e60d5d2a90ac", "symbol": "7419", "name": "Mortech Corporation", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 62.359, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -40.474, "architecture_energy": 62.497, "architecture_maturity": 22.0, "architecture_confidence": 68.005, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.08, "rotation_up": 26.14, "upward_expansion": 23.22, "deceleration": 43.56, "rotation_down": 60.22, "downward_expansion": 64.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.896667, 58.276364, 77.592381, 86.044732 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 49.450001, "trend_reference": 83.148334, "distance_from_trend": -0.40528, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.769936, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.918903, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.969203, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 1.644385, "excess_performance": 1.203013, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.40528, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.232101, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.918903, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -4.078948, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.289692, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.759899, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.644385, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.5445, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 739492, "relative_activity": 0.223592, "balance": 0.5445, "dry_up": 0.27958, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.442405, "annualized_volatility": 1.579387, "from_high_reference": -0.790466, "from_low_reference": 4.422149 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 83.148334, "fair_value_reference": 25.769936, "structural_low": 18.700001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.01122, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.003865, "regime_survival": 0.766667, "best_return": 0.149038, "worst_return": -0.137931, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.044643, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.048361, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.284185, "worst_return": -0.195215, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.081851, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.095214, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.35434, "worst_return": -0.249107, "sufficient": true }, { 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rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.646946, "energy": 43.44208, "activity_lines": [ 65.593335, 74.467274, 97.932382, 93.055699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 55.099998, "volume": 652981, "typical_volume": 4510761.0, "trend": 79.578334, "fair_value": 24.967372, "relative_strength": -14.536624, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.032769, "energy": 52.711108, "activity_lines": [ 60.853333, 69.285455, 92.97381, 91.560968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 51.0, "volume": 1276891, "typical_volume": 4127302.55, "trend": 80.788334, "fair_value": 25.226026, "relative_strength": -20.658716, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.508517, "energy": 59.086868, "activity_lines": [ 56.533333, 64.62, 87.58762, 89.717205 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 56.5, "volume": 1029277, "typical_volume": 3683013.8, "trend": 82.085, "fair_value": 25.520897, "relative_strength": -15.217315, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.008392, "energy": 57.699096, "activity_lines": [ 55.446666, 61.643637, 82.840477, 88.150215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 49.450001, "volume": 739492, "typical_volume": 3307320.3, "trend": 83.148334, "fair_value": 25.769936, "relative_strength": -28.969203, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.474424, "energy": 62.497104, "activity_lines": [ 52.896667, 58.276364, 77.592381, 86.044732 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }