{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4d0bef7d-8267-4e47-a303-6dfcd2287c9e", "symbol": "MYI", "name": "BlackRock MuniYield Quality Fund III Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 91.128, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 1.094, "architecture_energy": 13.687, "architecture_maturity": 18.253, "architecture_confidence": 66.71, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.01, "rotation_up": 16.11, "upward_expansion": 22.11, "deceleration": 73.97, "rotation_down": 50.42, "downward_expansion": 30.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.774319, 10.841946, 10.836251, 10.815936 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 10.84, "trend_reference": 10.812335, "distance_from_trend": 0.002559, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.091683, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.074152, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.429013, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.003379, "excess_performance": -0.129004, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002559, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009602, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.074152, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023481, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.09429, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027127, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.003379, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.798368, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1575646, "relative_activity": 1.095624, "balance": 0.798368, "dry_up": 0.899742, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019129, "annualized_volatility": 0.113816, "from_high_reference": -0.027694, "from_low_reference": 0.1015 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.812335, "fair_value_reference": 10.091683, "structural_low": 10.213324, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.002475, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.010635, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.073003, "worst_return": -0.080839, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.023346, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.022902, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.069872, "worst_return": -0.128279, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.02205, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.038239, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.10109, "worst_return": 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0.040027, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004817, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009702, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01488, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031338, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.000997, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", 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1396820.0, "trend": 10.802602, "fair_value": 10.07021, "relative_strength": -7.102287, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.4556, "energy": 10.82773, "activity_lines": [ 10.863811, 10.886335, 10.841586, 10.822907 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.66, "volume": 1148205, "typical_volume": 1406134.2, "trend": 10.805439, "fair_value": 10.0801, "relative_strength": -8.004448, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.323733, "energy": 14.08561, "activity_lines": [ 10.777582, 10.848087, 10.830192, 10.813707 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.84, "volume": 1575646, "typical_volume": 1438126.75, "trend": 10.812335, "fair_value": 10.091683, "relative_strength": -9.429013, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.094259, "energy": 13.686798, "activity_lines": [ 10.774319, 10.841946, 10.836251, 10.815936 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }