{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4d0db45f-54fc-4279-8504-07fb24511664", "symbol": "RAIL", "name": "Railcare Group AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.114, "architecture_energy": 74.226, "architecture_maturity": 55.105, "architecture_confidence": 94.552, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.67, "rotation_up": 55.48, "upward_expansion": 90.56, "deceleration": 49.08, "rotation_down": 27.6, "downward_expansion": 17.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.446667, 37.050909, 35.666339, 34.006331 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 37.400002, "trend_reference": 32.199037, "distance_from_trend": 0.161525, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.966273, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.44033, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 11.329211, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.209898, "excess_performance": 0.148403, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.161525, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096208, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.44033, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008776, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.113292, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049173, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.209898, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.716444, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 62061, "relative_activity": 0.790864, "balance": 1.716444, "dry_up": 0.701695, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037845, "annualized_volatility": 0.273551, "from_high_reference": -0.015789, "from_low_reference": 0.508786 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.199037, "fair_value_reference": 25.966273, "structural_low": 25.522977, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.012851, "positive_rate": 0.535714, "directional_follow_through": 0.535714, "median_excess_return": -0.000975, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.128676, "worst_return": -0.11831, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.076747, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.031672, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.16129, "worst_return": -0.188312, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.075092, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.123401, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.344086, "worst_return": -0.155844, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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}, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 36.0, "volume": 20257, "typical_volume": 81103.0, "trend": 30.647028, "fair_value": 25.300182, "relative_strength": 10.722832, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.434907, "energy": 63.637606, "activity_lines": [ 35.906667, 35.419322, 33.20061, 32.001783 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 37.599998, "volume": 130014, "typical_volume": 83757.2, "trend": 30.963049, "fair_value": 25.436306, "relative_strength": 17.864589, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.126008, "energy": 68.132584, "activity_lines": [ 36.473333, 35.930909, 33.790722, 32.450361 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 37.700001, "volume": 71381, "typical_volume": 80279.45, "trend": 31.295467, "fair_value": 25.571879, "relative_strength": 18.982027, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.96123, "energy": 67.111012, "activity_lines": [ 36.966666, 36.338182, 34.348944, 32.885003 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.5, "volume": 35851, "typical_volume": 79352.3, "trend": 31.613054, "fair_value": 25.70319, "relative_strength": 16.108187, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.215137, "energy": 72.512136, "activity_lines": [ 37.26, 36.665454, 34.843662, 33.285296 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.299999, "volume": 50962, "typical_volume": 77998.2, "trend": 31.91091, "fair_value": 25.833815, "relative_strength": 13.596781, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.008396, "energy": 65.088999, "activity_lines": [ 37.386666, 36.887272, 35.273964, 33.652196 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.400002, "volume": 62061, "typical_volume": 78472.45, "trend": 32.199037, "fair_value": 25.966273, "relative_strength": 11.329211, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.11442, "energy": 74.225767, "activity_lines": [ 37.446667, 37.050909, 35.666339, 34.006331 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }