{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4d105a03-36c4-4ec8-80e6-f70d363367f8", "symbol": "AQWA", "name": "Global X Clean Water UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 85.383, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 42.26, "architecture_energy": 27.619, "architecture_maturity": 28.455, "architecture_confidence": 48.288, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.64, "rotation_up": 50.13, "upward_expansion": 44.07, "deceleration": 46.01, "rotation_down": 29.3, "downward_expansion": 16.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.380666, 28.339273, 27.991405, 27.962731 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 28.924999, "trend_reference": 28.047833, "distance_from_trend": 0.031274, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.388173, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.096135, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.127039, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.000691, "excess_performance": -0.171583, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.031274, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009871, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.096135, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037671, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.11127, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018063, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.000691, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.599426, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 939, "relative_activity": 1.049221, "balance": 1.599426, "dry_up": 0.538857, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024373, "annualized_volatility": 0.141175, "from_high_reference": -0.024945, "from_low_reference": 0.100019 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.047833, "fair_value_reference": 26.388173, "structural_low": 26.295, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.019034, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.033345, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.052272, "worst_return": 0.01509, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.042138, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.01948, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.115571, "worst_return": -0.031296, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.029713, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.042456, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.177106, "worst_return": -0.117679, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 28.495001, "volume": 203, "typical_volume": 1847.8, "trend": 27.889833, "fair_value": 26.228269, "relative_strength": -12.031288, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.409364, "energy": 47.288744, "activity_lines": [ 28.421, 27.942182, 27.757548, 27.861151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.605, "volume": 364, "typical_volume": 1830.5, "trend": 27.940833, "fair_value": 26.271955, "relative_strength": -10.098919, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.650085, "energy": 59.564852, "activity_lines": [ 28.555, 28.120909, 27.835929, 27.90729 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.1, "volume": 345, "typical_volume": 1791.45, "trend": 27.984, "fair_value": 26.307949, "relative_strength": -11.22752, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.130511, "energy": 47.003208, "activity_lines": [ 28.43, 28.185727, 27.869786, 27.917559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.77, "volume": 281, "typical_volume": 1696.85, "trend": 28.010833, "fair_value": 26.344295, "relative_strength": -12.489175, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.80876, "energy": 15.400896, "activity_lines": [ 28.181, 28.164636, 27.875667, 27.903753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.924999, "volume": 939, "typical_volume": 894.95, "trend": 28.047833, "fair_value": 26.388173, "relative_strength": -11.127039, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.259977, "energy": 27.618848, "activity_lines": [ 28.380666, 28.339273, 27.991405, 27.962731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }